Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts

Carol Taylor West and Thomas Fullerton ()
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Carol Taylor West: University of Florida

Urban/Regional from EconWPA

Abstract: This article provides a systematic review of regional employment forecasts in Florida and 19 metropolitan statistical areas. One-quarter- ahead to ten-quarter-ahead forecasts are analyzed for a seven-year period that includes a complete business cycle. Structural econometric model forecasts are shown to compare favorably to univariate benchmark extrapolations. Strucutral model dependency on macroeconometric model forecast inputs is not found to hamper regional predictive accuracy.

Keywords: Regional econometrics; forecast accuracy assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo and nep-ure
Date: 2004-04-21
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 16
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0404009

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