Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression

Michael Peter Clements and Hans-Martin Krolzig ()

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: We propose testing for business cycle asymmetries in Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) models. We derive the parametric restrictions on MS-AR models that rule out types of asymmetries such as deepness, steepness, and sharpness, and set out a testing procedure based on Wald statistics which have standard asymptotic. For a two-regime model, such as that popularized by Hamilton (1989), we show that deepness implies sharpness (and vice versa) while the process is always non-steep. We illustrate with two and three-state MS models of US GNP growth, and with models of US output and employment. Our findings are compared with those obtained from standard non-parametric tests.

Keywords: BUSINESS CYCLES; TESTS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C30 C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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