EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The agricultural and the democratic transitions: causality and the roundup model

Erich Gundlach () and Martin Paldam

No 1521, Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)

Abstract: Long-run development (in income) causes a large fall in the share of agriculture commonly known as the agricultural transition. We confirm that this conventional wisdom is strongly supported by the data. Long-run development (in income) also causes a large increase in democracy known as the democratic transition. Elsewhere we have shown that it is almost as strong as the agricultural transition. Recently, a method has been presented to weed out spuriousness. It makes the democratic transition go away by turning income insignificant, when it is supplemented by a set of formal controls. We show that the same method makes the agricultural transition go away as well. Hence, it seems to be a method that kills far too much, as suggested by the subtitle. This suggestion leads to a discussion of the very meaning of long-run causality.

Keywords: Long-run growth; transitions; causality and spuriousness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O1 P5 Q1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/28349/1/600480623.PDF (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The agricultural and the democratic transitions - Causality and the Roundup model (2009) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1521

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by ZBW - German National Library of Economics ().

 
Page updated 2017-04-25
Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1521