Trump’s trade policy: almost every fifth establishment in the manufacturing sector feels the consequences

Alexander Kubis and Ignat Stepanok
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Alexander Kubis: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Ignat Stepanok: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany

IAB-Forum, 2026, vol. 2026, issue 04|Apr, 1-24.01

Abstract: "6 percent of German establishments report that they are predominantly negatively affected by the impact of the changes to US trade policy since the beginning of 2025. These establishments employ 11 percent of the total employment in Germany. However, the decline in job vacancies in these establishments has so far been less pronounced than the average across all establishments. Other factors currently appear to play a more important role in the labour market slowdown. In the longer term, however, global disruptions caused by the US trade policy, along with the additional uncertainty it has created for establishments, are likely to make it harder for the labour market to recover." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; USA; Außenhandelsentwicklung; Auswirkungen; Beschäftigungseffekte; Entwicklung; Export; internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen; offene Stellen; Protektionismus; IAB-Stellenerhebung; sektorale Verteilung; Umsatzentwicklung; Unsicherheit; Unternehmen; verarbeitendes Gewerbe; Zollpolitik; 2024-2025 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04-24
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabfor:v:2026:i:04:p:1-24.01

DOI: 10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260424.01

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