When evacuation becomes a disaster: governance failure and household crisis response in Goma, DR Congo

Elias Maombi Ndatabaye, Elie Lunanga, Nik Stoop and Marijke Verpoorten

No 2026.04, IOB Working Papers from Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB)

Abstract: Disaster mortality remains high in low-income countries, where limited state capacity weakens early warning and evacuation planning. In such settings, households rely on their own judgments and resources when hazards occur. We examine evacuation during the 2021 volcanic eruption near Goma, using survey data from 619 households, pre-eruption institutional trust measures, and 17 qualitative interviews. Most evacuation occurred immediately after the eruption, before any official instruction. Prior experience shaped these early decisions in opposite ways: surviving the 2002 eruption without major loss was associated with lower evacuation in 2021, while losing relatives or one’s home was associated with higher evacuation. Evacuation unfolded under harsh conditions, marked by shortages of transport, water, and shelter; only 2% of households reported receiving government support. This experience led to widespread regret and was associated with lower responsiveness to the belated official evacuation order. Communication failures further weakened the order’s effectiveness: fewer than half of respondents living inside the evacuation zone correctly identified that they were included in it. Trust in authorities appears to have supported compliance only among respondents who believed the order applied to their neighbourhood. The findings highlight the importance of state capacity, clear communication, and evacuation planning adapted to fragile settings.

Keywords: Kivu; disasters; governance failure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 53 pages
Date: 2026-05
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