EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes

Chris R Birchenhall, Denise Osborn () and Marianne Sensier ()

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2001, vol. 48, issue 2, 179-95

Abstract: This paper uses logistic regression to construct a one-quarter ahead prediction model for classical business cycle regimes in the UK. The binary dependent variable is obtained by applying simple mechanical rules to date turning points in quarterly real GDP data from 1963 to 1999. Using a range of real and financial leading indicators, several parsimonious one-quarter-ahead models are developed for the GDP regimes, with model selection based on the SIC criterion. A real M4 variable is consistently found to have predictive content. One model that performs well combines this with nominal UK and German short-term interest rates. The role of the latter emphasises the open nature of the UK economy. Copyright 2001 by Scottish Economic Society.

Date: 2001
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent ... &year=2001&part=null link to full text (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes (2000) Downloads
Working Paper: Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes (2000) Downloads
Working Paper: PREDICTING UK BUSINESS CYCLE REGIMES (2000) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:48:y:2001:i:2:p:179-95

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0036-9292

Access Statistics for this article

Scottish Journal of Political Economy is currently edited by Tim Barmby, Andrew Hughes-Hallett and Campbell Leith

More articles in Scottish Journal of Political Economy from Scottish Economic Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

 
Page updated 2019-09-29
Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:48:y:2001:i:2:p:179-95