Stressed Banks? Evidence from the Largest-Ever Supervisory Review

Puriya Abbassi (), Rajkamal Iyer (), José-Luis Peydró () and Paul E. Soto ()
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Puriya Abbassi: Deutsche Bundesbank, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Rajkamal Iyer: Imperial College Business School, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
José-Luis Peydró: Imperial College Business School, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; and Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, 08005 Barcelona, Spain
Paul E. Soto: Federal Reserve Board, Washington, District of Columbia 20006

Management Science, 2025, vol. 71, issue 10, 8390-8412

Abstract: We study short-term and medium-term changes in bank risk-taking as a result of supervision and the associated real effects. For identification, we exploit the European Central Bank’s asset-quality-review (AQR) in conjunction with security and credit registers. After the AQR announcement, reviewed banks reduce riskier securities and credit supply, with the greatest effect on riskiest securities. We find negative spillovers on asset prices and firm-level credit availability. Moreover, nonbanks with higher exposure to reviewed banks acquire the shed risk. After the AQR compliance, reviewed banks reload riskier securities but not riskier credit, resulting in negative medium-term firm-level real effects. These effects are especially strong for firms with high ex ante credit risk. Among these nonsafe firms, even those with high ex ante productivity, experience negative real effects. Our findings suggest that banks’ liquid assets help them to mask risk from supervisors and risk adjustments banks make in response to supervision have persistent corporate real effects.

Keywords: corporate real effects from bank credit; asset quality review; stress tests; supervision; risk-masking; costs of safe assets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:71:y:2025:i:10:p:8390-8412

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