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Real and Financial Cycles in Euro Area Economies: Results from Wavelet Analysis

Scharnagl Michael () and Mandler Martin ()
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Scharnagl Michael: Research Department, Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Mandler Martin: Directorate General Economics, Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14, D-60431Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2019, vol. 239, issue 5-6, 895-916

Abstract: We study the within-country dimension of financial cycles in the four largest euro area economies using tools from wavelet analysis. We focus on credit and house price cycles which are most commonly used to represent the financial cycle. With the exception of Germany, the variables contain important common cycles within each country close to the upper bound of business cycle length and beyond which can be interpreted as financial cycles. These cycles are closely linked to domestic cycles in real activity showing financial and real economic cycles as interconnected phenomena. For these common cycles, credit and house prices lag real GDP.

Keywords: financial cycles; credit cycles; medium-term business cycles; euro area; wavelet analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C30 E32 E51 F36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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