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Uncertainty and Business Cycle: A Review of the Literature and Some Evidence from the Spanish Economy/Incertidumbre y Ciclo Empresarial: Revisión de la literatura y evidencia en la economía española

Roberto Basile () and Alessandro Girardi ()

Estudios de Economia Aplicada, 2018, vol. 36, No 1, 235-250

Abstract: The article reviews the main economic mechanisms which have been theorised when considering the uncertainty/economic activity nexus, as well as the methods by which uncertainty is commonly proxied through observable quantities. Some empirical evidence on the role of uncertainty in shaping macroeconomic fluctuations for the case of the Spanish economy is also presented. We document that uncertainty tends to reduce the level of economic activity in the short run, although traces of overshooting cannot be detected. Este artículo revisa los principales mecanismos económicos que se han esgrimido a la hora de considerar el nexo incertidumbre/actividad económica, así como los métodos mediante los cuales la incertidumbre es aproximada por medio de cantidades observables. También presenta evidencia empírica relativa al papel de la incertidumbre en la configuración de las fluctuaciones macroeconómicas de la economía española. Se observa que la incertidumbre tiende a reducir el nivel de la actividad económica a corto plazo, aunque no se detectan signos de sobrereacción.

Keywords: Incertidumbre; encuestas a empresas y consumidores; auto-regresión vectorial; España.; Uncertainty; Business and Consumer Surveys; Vector AutoRegression; Spain. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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