EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Uncertainty and Business Cycle: A Review of the Literature and Some Evidence from the Spanish Economy/Incertidumbre y Ciclo Empresarial: Revisión de la literatura y evidencia en la economía española

Roberto Basile () and Alessandro Girardi ()
Additional contact information
Alessandro Girardi: Parliamentary Budget Office, Palazzo del Seminario (S. Macuto), Via del Seminario, 76, 00186 Roma, Italy.

Estudios de Economia Aplicada, 2018, vol. 36, No 1, 235-250

Abstract: The article reviews the main economic mechanisms which have been theorised when considering the uncertainty/economic activity nexus, as well as the methods by which uncertainty is commonly proxied through observable quantities. Some empirical evidence on the role of uncertainty in shaping macroeconomic fluctuations for the case of the Spanish economy is also presented. We document that uncertainty tends to reduce the level of economic activity in the short run, although traces of overshooting cannot be detected. Este artículo revisa los principales mecanismos económicos que se han esgrimido a la hora de considerar el nexo incertidumbre/actividad económica, así como los métodos mediante los cuales la incertidumbre es aproximada por medio de cantidades observables. También presenta evidencia empírica relativa al papel de la incertidumbre en la configuración de las fluctuaciones macroeconómicas de la economía española. Se observa que la incertidumbre tiende a reducir el nivel de la actividad económica a corto plazo, aunque no se detectan signos de sobrereacción.

Keywords: Incertidumbre; encuestas a empresas y consumidores; auto-regresión vectorial; España.; Uncertainty; Business and Consumer Surveys; Vector AutoRegression; Spain. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.revista-eea.net
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lrk:eeaart:36_1_16

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.revista-eea.net

Access Statistics for this article

Estudios de Economia Aplicada is currently edited by Jose Garica Perez

More articles in Estudios de Economia Aplicada from Estudios de Economia Aplicada Miguel Angel Sanchez Granero. Departamento de Matematicas. Universidad de Almeria. Spain.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Miguel Angel Sanchez Granero ().

 
Page updated 2019-03-31
Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:36_1_16