Decadal trends in global grassland growth peaks and their drivers since the 1980s

Cuihai You, Shiping Chen, Zhiqin Tu, Chenyu Bian, Erqian Cui, Kun Huang, Fangxiu Wan, Jiaye Ping, Ning Wei and Jianyang Xia ()
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Cuihai You: East China Normal University
Shiping Chen: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zhiqin Tu: East China Normal University
Chenyu Bian: East China Normal University
Erqian Cui: East China Normal University
Kun Huang: East China Normal University
Fangxiu Wan: East China Normal University
Jiaye Ping: East China Normal University
Ning Wei: Cornell University
Jianyang Xia: East China Normal University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Grasslands, Earth’s most widespread terrestrial ecosystems, are vital for global carbon sequestration and food security. A key indicator of these functions is vegetation growth peak, reflecting maximum seasonal productivity. However, whether this growth peak consistently increases across global grasslands remains unknown. Here, using satellite-derived vegetation data from 1982 to 2021, we reveal a widespread increase in grassland growth peaks, with 71% (20/28) IPCC climate regions exhibiting significant trends. However, this trend reverses between 1998 and 2009 in 64% of regions, notably across the Tibetan Plateau and East Asia. The reversal is supported by a global gross primary productivity dataset generated via machine learning, trained on eddy covariance flux data. The interruption is primarily associated with a global-scale decadal drought. These findings demonstrate that persistent drought can disrupt the upward trajectory of grassland growth peaks, posing a spatially uneven but widespread threat to ecological functions of grasslands under climate change.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-64565-x

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