Land use-induced soil carbon loss in the dry tropics nearly offsets gains in northern lands

Huan Wang (), Philippe Ciais (), Hui Yang, Pete Smith, Giacomo Grassi, Clemens Schwingshackl, Panos Panagos, Yinon Bar-On, Stephen Sitch, Frédéric Chevallier, Paul I. Palmer, Xiaojun Li, Songbai Hong, Jinfeng Chang, Clément Albergel, Lei Fan, Kai Wang, Laibao Liu, Frédéric Frappart and Jean-Pierre Wigneron
Additional contact information
Huan Wang: Peking University
Philippe Ciais: CEA-CNRS-UVSQ
Hui Yang: Peking University
Pete Smith: University of Aberdeen
Giacomo Grassi: Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Clemens Schwingshackl: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
Panos Panagos: Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Yinon Bar-On: California Institute of Technology
Stephen Sitch: University of Exeter
Frédéric Chevallier: CEA-CNRS-UVSQ
Paul I. Palmer: University of Edinburgh
Xiaojun Li: UMR 1391 ISPA
Songbai Hong: Peking University
Jinfeng Chang: Zhejiang University
Clément Albergel: ECSAT
Lei Fan: Southwest University
Kai Wang: Peking University
Laibao Liu: The University of Hong Kong
Frédéric Frappart: UMR 1391 ISPA
Jean-Pierre Wigneron: UMR 1391 ISPA

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Soil carbon changes are difficult to measure globally, and global models are poorly constrained. Here, we propose a framework to map annual changes in soil carbon and litter (SOCL) as the difference between the net land CO2 flux from atmospheric inversions and satellite-based maps of biomass changes. We show that SOCL accumulated globally at a rate of about 0.34 ± 0.30 ( ± 1 sigma) billion tonnes of carbon per year (PgC yr−1) during 2011-2020. The largest SOCL sink is found in boreal regions (0.93 ± 0.45 PgC yr−1 in total) particularly in undisturbed peatlands and managed forests. The largest losses occur in the dry tropics (−0.50 ± 0.47 PgC yr−1) and correspond with agricultural expansion from land use change, cropland management and grazing. By contrast, forests in the wet tropics act as a net soil carbon sink (0.32 ± 0.35 PgC yr−1). Our findings highlight the large mitigation opportunities in the dry tropics to restore agricultural soil carbon.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-64929-3

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