A rapidly closing window for coral persistence under global warming

Yves-Marie Bozec (), Arne A. S. Adam, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, Anna K. Cresswell, Vanessa Haller-Bull, Takuya Iwanaga, Liam Lachs, Samuel A. Matthews, Jennifer K. McWhorter, Kenneth R. N. Anthony, Scott A. Condie, Paul R. Halloran, Juan-Carlos Ortiz, Cynthia Riginos and Peter J. Mumby
Additional contact information
Yves-Marie Bozec: University of Queensland
Arne A. S. Adam: University of Queensland
Beatriz Arellano-Nava: University of Exeter
Anna K. Cresswell: Australian Institute of Marine Science
Vanessa Haller-Bull: Australian Institute of Marine Science
Takuya Iwanaga: Australian Institute of Marine Science
Liam Lachs: Newcastle University
Samuel A. Matthews: Australian Institute of Marine Science
Jennifer K. McWhorter: University of Miami
Kenneth R. N. Anthony: Australian Institute of Marine Science
Scott A. Condie: CSIRO Environment
Paul R. Halloran: University of Exeter
Juan-Carlos Ortiz: Australian Institute of Marine Science
Cynthia Riginos: University of Queensland
Peter J. Mumby: University of Queensland

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Coral reefs around the world are increasingly threatened by marine heatwaves causing widespread coral bleaching and mortality. Global analyses of projected heatwaves can inform decision-making, but forecasting the interactions between disturbance refugia, coral life histories and capacity to adapt is key for guiding strategic management of coral persistence. Here, we simulate coral eco-evolutionary dynamics across 3800 reefs of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef under current climate projections. We project a rapid coral decline by mid-century under all emission scenarios, with further decline under the most likely warming trajectory. However, recovery is possible this century if warming remains below 2 °C, allowing thermal adaptation to keep pace. Our simulations show that resilient reefs are primarily in bleaching refugia, which also support a greater diversity of thermal phenotypes. While cool-adapted corals disperse to warm spots, we found no evidence of ‘gene swamping’ undermining thermal adaptation. Our findings highlight that management opportunities exist to promote adaptation in thermal refugia and warm spots, but emphasize that curbing global warming by 2050 is crucial for coral persistence.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-65015-4

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