The Role of Technological Change in the Long-run Global Economy Forecasting
VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, 2013, vol. 1
The author compares several quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecasting to find appropriate methods to incorporate technological change in long-range forecasts of the world economy. A?number of long-run forecasts (with horizons over 10 years) for the world economy and national economies is reviewed to outline advantages and drawbacks for different ways to account for technological change. Various approaches based on their sensitivity to data quality and robustness to model misspecifications are compared and recommendations are offered on the choice of appropriate technique in long-run forecasts of the world economy in the presence of technological change.
Keywords: technological change; technical progress; global economy; long-run forecasting; economic modeling. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E17 F61 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nos:voprec:2013-01-5
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