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Fluctuations in uncertainty

Nicholas Bloom ()

VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, 2016, vol. 4

Abstract: In this essay, the author addresses four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries — developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature.

Keywords: risk; uncertainty; business cycle; Great Recession. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Related works:
Journal Article: Fluctuations in Uncertainty (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: FLUCTUATIONS IN UNCERTAINTY (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Fluctuations in Uncertainty (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Fluctuations in Uncertainty (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: Fluctuations in uncertainty (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: Fluctuations in Uncertainty (2013) Downloads
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