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Import substitution of investment goods in Russia

Pavel Pavlov and Andrey Kaukin


Abstract: This paper investigates the sensitivity of the demand for imported capital goods to the influence of various factors of the investment dynamics with the aim to generate evidence-based recommendations for the import substitution policy in the Russian Federation. It provides a forecast of the dynamics of the demand for imported machinery, equipment, components and vehicles in various macroeconomic scenario conditions. The article estimates the influence of the EU and US sectoral sanctions on the volume of Russian imports of investment goods. We characterize different approaches to the import substitution policy in the Russian Federation and conditions for their implementation.

Keywords: import substitution; investment goods; real effective exchange rate; sectoral import substitution plans; international trade. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E22 F47 L52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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