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SPATIAL, TEMPORAL AND STRUCTURAL COMPONENTS OF DIAGNOSTIC MODELS OF BANKS' PROBLEM SITUATIONS

O. Gaponenko (), O. Sergienko () and M. Shavlak ()
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O. Gaponenko: Associate Professor of Foreigh Economic Activity and Finance Department of the National Technical University "Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute"
O. Sergienko: Associate Professor of Higher Mathematics Department of Kharkiv Educational and Scientific Institute of the State Higher Education Institution "Banking University"
M. Shavlak: – Assistant of Banking Department of Kharkiv Educational and Scientific Institute of the State Higher Education Institution "Banking University"

Economics of Development, 2016, vol. 80, issue 4, 82-94

Abstract: The spatial and dynamic comparative analysis of the Ukrainian banking market has been conducted, namely: Top 10 profitable and unprofitable banks, the dynamics of the Ukrainian banking system' (UBS) and large banks' equity and assets profitability, customer credit and deposit portfolios within a region. The conceptual diagnostic model aiming to study the Ukrainian banking system's stability has been developed. The models of market nonstationary dynamics, models of investigation of the competitive environment of the banking services market, models of survival and spreading crises on the banking market and catastrophe models of bank financial stability indicators taking into account external factors have been constructed. The study has shown that external threats of competitive environment are one of the main threats to the banks' stability. The rating of regions according to the number of banking institutions and the development level of credit unions has made it possible to distinguish the following groups in terms of threats to the competitive environment for commercial banks: with high, average and low level of threat. A scenario model to study the intensity of crisis spreading on the banking market has been constructed, to determine the speed of change in the number of financially unstable banks, bankrupt banks and banks in the state of bailout. The hypothesis of nonlinearity and unpredictability of indicators' change and possibility of catastrophic transitions (crises) which may occur on the Ukrainian banking market has been proved with the use of the tools of the catastrophe theory for constructed models of stability indicators interaction of systemically important banks considering the factors of external environment. So, authoring is improving the complex of economic and mathematical diagnostic models for identification of bank's problem situations, which will make it possible to foresee and prevent crises and improve the quality and operational efficiency of decisions to ensure sufficient financial stability and improve the performance indicators

Keywords: banking system; diagnostics; disaster; competition; modelling; problem situations; stability; phase analysis. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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