Global Economic Spillovers to ASEAN 5: A Global Vector Autoregression Approach
M. Abd. Nasir,
Ciplis Gema Qori’ah and
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M. Abd. Nasir: Department of Economics and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics, University of Jember, Indonesia
Adhitya Wardhono: Department of Economics and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics, University of Jember, Indonesia
Ciplis Gema Qori’ah: Ph.D Student at Department of Economics, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Zainuri: Department of Economics and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics, University of Jember, Indonesia
Abstract of Economic, Finance and Management Outlook, 2016, vol. 5, 19
Financial crisis outbreak in the past few years has emerged several important issues on financial transmission shocks amongst countries in the world. ASEAN 5, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines, are among those suffering spillover effect from global financial shock condition, particularly that of financial policy in Europe and the United States of America. One of the impact destabilizing the economy condition in ASEAN 5 is that the capital traffic is slowing and trade deficit occurs. This paper is written to find out the effect of changing the global economy indicator policy which directly influence macroeconomic indicator in ASEAN 5. The data consist form those of ASEAN 5 countries from the period of 2000-2012. Empirical result estimated using Global Vector Auto Regression Approach (GVAR) indicates that financial shock resulted from the US Crisis causes the spillover effect to macroeconomic fundamental condition in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia through the trade channels. Meanwhile, Singapore and Thailand suffer the spillover effect through financial channels causing a non-significant impact on their economic condition. On the contrary, crisis occurring in the European Union affect insignificantly to the ASEAN 5 economic condition. This is due to the fact that the economy destabilization is caused by the internal condition and the anticipated economic policy has been taken by the European Union.
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pkp:ecfmao:2016:p:19:vol:5
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