Norway’s net-zero emissions target for 2030 too ambitious to be true?

Brita Bye, Taran Fæhn (), Lars Gulbrandsen, Kevin R. Kaushal, Christian Wilhelm Mohr, Gunnhild Søgaard, Asbjørn Torvanger, Jørgen Wettestad and Knut Øistad
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Brita Bye: Statistics Norway, Research Department
Taran Fæhn: Statistics Norway, Research Department
Lars Gulbrandsen: The Fridtjof Nansen’s Institute
Kevin R. Kaushal: Statistics Norway, Research Department
Christian Wilhelm Mohr: NIBIO The Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
Gunnhild Søgaard: NIBIO The Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
Asbjørn Torvanger: CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Jørgen Wettestad: The Fridtjof Nansen’s Institute
Knut Øistad: NIBIO The Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2025, vol. 30, issue 8, No 8, 33 pages

Abstract: Abstract Norway has positioned itself as a climate policy forerunner by aiming to reach net-zero emissions already by 2030. However, the net-zero ambition is not well-defined, not legally binding, nor substantiated by action plans. In a first, interdisciplinary, analysis we scrutinise the net-zero concept and discuss unilateral options. Second, we provide an economic analysis with a global computable model, SNOW, of the costs and macroeconomic impacts of various policy scenarios. It explores how the net-zero ambition interacts with other 2030 goals and quantifies the impacts of emphasising domestic abatement and carbon removal measures vs. paying for emission mitigation abroad. Finally, the 2030 results are revisited to assess how well they align with Norwegian and global climate targets for 2050. The main findings are that pursuing the net-zero ambition, on top of other binding 2030 goals Norway is already committed to, will increase costs by 25–100% depending on the use of domestic measures. On the margin, domestic measures are found to have only small, uncertain, and costly mitigation potential, thus, buying international carbon credits will be inevitable. Besides being significantly cheaper, carbon trading can have the potential benefits of developing the credit markets and the individual projects’ qualities. Even if domestic measures can play but a modest part in the net-zero strategy towards 2030, we identify several steps governments unilaterally can take today to expand abatement opportunities towards mid-century. We also find measures that seem cost-effective in pursuing 2030 goals but look less attractive against a global 2050 backdrop.

Keywords: Net-zero emissions; Climate change mitigation; abatement policies; Nationally determined contributions; Carbon credits; Emissions trading system; Effort sharing regulation; LULUCF (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11027-025-10229-6

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