Investigating the Dependence Structure of Temperature and Precipitation Concentration with Evapotranspiration in Finland

Rasoul Mirabbasi (), Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi, Alireza Sharifi and Ali Torabi Haghighi
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Rasoul Mirabbasi: Shahrekord University, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture
Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi: Lorestan University, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture
Alireza Sharifi: University of Oulu, Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, Faculty of Technology
Ali Torabi Haghighi: University of Oulu, Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, Faculty of Technology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2025, vol. 39, issue 14, No 22, 7837-7862

Abstract: Abstract This study presents a first-of-its-kind trivariate analysis investigating the dependence structure between temperature concentration (TCI), precipitation concentration (PCI) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) over nine Finnish meteorological stations (1980–2021) using Vine copula modeling. Trend analysis using the modified Mann–Kendall test (MMK) showed that for PCI values, 7 out of 9 stations exhibited decreasing trends (slopes: − 0.04 to − 0.68 yr-1), although not significant (p > 0.05), indicating a more uniform precipitation distribution. Only HT (+ 0.28 yr-1) and KP (+ 0.05 yr-1) showed slight increases, indicating local irregularities. As for the TCI values, significant increases (p 10 occurs with a probability of > 50% nationwide, indicating heightened flood risks—snowmelt-driven in the north (TCI-sensitive) and rainfall-driven in the south (PCI-sensitive). These results are consistent with observed hydroclimatic shifts in Finland, including increased winter flooding (north) and extreme summer precipitation (south), emphasizing the need for region-specific water management strategies to address the combined drought and flood risks under climate change.

Keywords: Evapotranspiration; Precipitation concentration; Temperature concentration; Trivariate analysis; Vine Copula (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04320-5

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