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Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia

V.V. Mironov and Anna Petronevich

No 3/2015, BOFIT Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition

Abstract: ​This paper examines the problem of Dutch disease in Russia during the oil boom of the 2000s, from both the theoretical and empirical points of view. Our analysis is based on the classical model of Dutch disease by Corden and Neary (1982). We examine the relationship between changes in the real effective exchange rate of the ruble and the evolution of the Russian economic structure during the period 2002 – 2013. We empirically test the main effects of Dutch disease, controlling for specific features of the Russian economy, namely the large role of state-owned organizations. We estimate the resource movement and spending effects as determined by the theoretical model and find the presence of several signs of Dutch disease: the negative impact of the real effective exchange rate on growth in the manufacturing sector, the growth of total income of workers, and the positive link between the real effective exchange rate and returns on capital in all three sectors. Although also predicted by the model and clearly observable, the shift of labor from manufacturing to services cannot be explained by ruble appreciation alone. Publication keywords: Dutch disease, resource curse, real effective exchange rate, cointegration model, economic policy, Russia

JEL-codes: F41 F43 C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-ene and nep-opm
Date: 2015-01-19
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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Published in Published in Resources Policy, Volume 46, Part 2, December 01, 2015, Pages 97-112

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