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How informative are aggregated inflation expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Sami Oinonen and Maritta Paloviita ()

No 15/2016, Research Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland

Abstract: This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel composition. First, we compare two sub-groups of survey respondents divided on the basis of forecast accuracy. Then, we examine possible differences between regular and irregular forecasters. Finally, we assess the relevance of aggregated forecast revisions in the unbalanced panel by constructing alternative forecast revisions based on the set of sub-panels of fixed composition. The results show that, because of heterogeneity across individual views, aggregated inflation expectations in the ECB SPF must be analysed also on a micro level.

JEL-codes: C53 E37 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2016-05-24
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Published in Journal of Business Cycle Research, 13, 2017: 139 - 163

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