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¿Por qué el Valle del Cauca ha crecido más que el promedio nacional? Un análisis regional de los ciclos y los choques económicos

Pavel Vidal Alejandro, Gilberto Ramírez and Lya Sierra ()

No 33, Working Papers from Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali

Abstract: Using a BVAR model and the data of the Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE), the effect of different monetary and external sector shocks on the cyclical growth of the department of Valle del Cauca is estimated, and compared with the effect of these same shocks on the national cycle. We found that the economy of the Valle del Cauca differs from the national average by presenting larger response to variations in the real exchange rate. This is precisely the factor that in a greater proportion -almost by 50 %- explains the higher growth of the economy of Valle del Cauca since the end of 2013. The estimates show the null effect that the changes in the price of oil have on the departmental growth andthe greater the impact on the economy of the Valley of the changes in the US GDP and the country risk. The version here presented corresponds to the updated study.

Keywords: Regional; Monetary Policy; Transmission Mechanisms; BVAR; Valle del Cauca (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 C43 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Date: 2018-01
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