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Modelo de Desarrollo Propio y su Potencial para la Construcción de Paz Territorial

José Mora and Rafael Acevedo ()
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Rafael Acevedo: Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali

No 39, Working Papers from Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali

Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between the size of the fiscal multiplier and the degree of capital mobility in some Latin American countries. The Mundell (1963) and Fleming (1962) model establishes that this effect might be very large or very small (very close to zero) depending on the exchange rate regime and the degree of capital mobility; the potency of fiscal policy is inversely correlated with the degree of capital mobility. We use Mora (2013) model to argue that the multiplier might not be negatively correlated with capital mobility in these countries. In other words, the potency of fiscal policy could be reduced by the fact that capital mobility in Latin American countries tends to be quite low. The empirical findings support the hypothesis. We have found that the size of the fiscal multiplier tends to increase or (at least) to remain relatively stable, around 1.40, in these countries in the short run; however, in the long run, this effect tends to decrease significantly to 0.34. These results also suggest that fiscal policy is still very potent, but given their economic structure differences, could be larger if Latin American countries become more financially integrated with the rest of the world. The version here presented corresponds to the updated study.

Keywords: fiscal policy; business cycles; Latin America (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 E12 F41 O54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Date: 2018-12
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ftp://repec.javerianacali.edu.co/WorkingPapers/ddtn392018.pdf First version, 2017 (application/pdf)

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