Working Paper 01-19 - Future evolution of the car stock in Belgium: CASMO, the new satellite of PLANET
Laurent Franckx ()
Working Papers from Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium
The new Belgian CAr Stock MOdel, which is linked to the national transport demand modelÂ PLANET, is structured as follows: (a) The total desired car stock in each future year is a function of theÂ country's population and GDP per capita. (b) The probability that a car is scrapped is modelled as aÂ function of its age and accumulated mileage. The desired car stock is then confronted with the remainingÂ car stock to determine total car purchases. (c) Total sales are allocated to individual emission classes,Â using the parameter values of a Stated Preference discrete choice model. The model is then calibratedÂ in order to reflect the current market and policy context in Belgium (d) The results are mapped into anÂ inventory that is aggregated according to the EURO emission class. (e) In order to represent that theÂ non-price barriers to electrified cars will decrease over time, we have implemented an alternative approachÂ where the perceived acquisition costs decrease over time. Alternatively, this approach can beÂ used to explore what would be the required decrease in subjective costs to reach a given future marketÂ share.
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