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Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence

Laurent Ferrara (), Olivier Darné and Amélie Charles

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Abstract: In this paper we examine whether or not the Great Recession had a temporary or permanent effect on output growth volatility after years of low macroeconomic volatility since the early eighties. Based on break detection methods applied to a set of advanced countries, our empirical results do not give evidence to the end of the Great Moderation period but rather that the Great Recession is characterized by a dramatic short-lived effect on the output growth but not on its volatility.We show that neglecting the breaks both in mean and in variance can have large effects on output volatility odeling based on GARCH specifications

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Date: 2017
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01635945
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Published in Economic Inquiry, Wiley, 2017

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Related works:
Journal Article: DOES THE GREAT RECESSION IMPLY THE END OF THE GREAT MODERATION? INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence (2014) Downloads
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