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Prévisions d’experts et politique monétaire de la BCE

Claudiu Albulescu (), Christian Aubin () and Daniel Goyeau ()
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Christian Aubin: Axe 2 : « Marchés, Cultures de consommation, Autonomie et Migrations » (MSHS Poitiers) - MSHS - Unite mixte de service maison des sciences de l'homme et de la société de Poitiers - Université de Poitiers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers
Daniel Goyeau: Axe 2 : « Marchés, Cultures de consommation, Autonomie et Migrations » (MSHS Poitiers) - MSHS - Unite mixte de service maison des sciences de l'homme et de la société de Poitiers - Université de Poitiers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers

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Abstract: This paper examines the relevance and consistency of the information contained in the quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the ECB. It first confirms that monetary policy reacts more to inflation and unemployment expectations than to their achievements. It then shows that, firstly, experts’ forecasts take into account effectiveness of monetary policy on inflation and growth and, secondly, forecasters expect a significant response of monetary policy to anticipated movements in inflation and unemployment. These findings support both the ideas of a global consistency of the surveyed experts’ forecasts and of a transparency of the ECB’s monetary policy.

Keywords: Chômage; Inflation; BCE; Politique monétaire; Croissance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01388715
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Published in Revue Française d'Economie, Revue française d'économie, 2016, Crises financières et contagions internationales : une mise en perspective macroéconomique et cliométrique, XXX (3), pp.227 - 263

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Journal Article: Prévisions d’experts et politique monétaire de la BCE (2015) Downloads
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Working Paper: Prévisions d’experts et politique monétaire de la BCE (2014)
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