EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?

Renaud Coulomb and Marc Sangnier ()
Additional contact information
Renaud Coulomb: PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) from HAL

Abstract: This paper simultaneously estimates the impact of political majorities on the values of firms that would benefit from the platforms of the two main candidates at the 2007 French presidential election, Ségolène Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy, and of those that are ruled or owned by Sarkozy's friends. We use prediction-market data to track each candidate's victory probability, and investigate how this relates to firms' abnormal returns. Our estimates suggest that the value of firms that would likely benefit from the platforms of Royal and Sarkozy changed by 1% and 2%, respectively, with the candidates' victory probabilities, and that firms connected to Sarkozy out-performed others by 3% due to his election.

Keywords: Political majority; Prediction markets; Firm value; Abnormal returns; Political connections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-07
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01511083
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14) Track citations by RSS feed

Published in Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, 2014, 115, pp.158-170. ⟨10.1016/j.jpubeco.2014.05.001⟩

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Journal Article: The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter? (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: The Impact of Political Majorities on Firm Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter? (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: The Impact of Political Majorities on Firm Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter? (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter? (2014)
Working Paper: The Impact of Political Majorities on Firm Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter? (2014) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-01511083

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2014.05.001

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Caroline Bauer ().

 
Page updated 2022-05-08
Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-01511083