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Adaptive Order Flow Forecasting with Multiplicative Error Models

Wolfgang Karl Härdle, Andrija Mihoci () and Christooher Hian-Ann ting
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Wolfgang Karl Härdle ()

SFB 649 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University, Collaborative Research Center 649

Abstract: A flexible statistical approach for the analysis of time-varying dynamics of transaction data on financial markets is here applied to intra-day trading strategies. A local adaptive technique is used to successfully predict financial time series, i.e., the buyer and the seller-initiated trading volumes and the order flow dynamics. Analysing order flow series and its information content of mini Nikkei 225 index futures traded at the Osaka Securities Exchange in 2012 and 2013, a data-driven optimal length of local windows up to approximately 1-2 hours is reasonable to capture parameter variations and is suitable for short-term prediction. Our proposed trading strategies achieve statistical arbitrage opportunities and are therefore beneficial for quantitative finance practice.

Keywords: multiplicative error models; trading volume; order flow; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C41 C51 C53 G12 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2014-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets, nep-for, nep-mst and nep-ore
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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