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Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model with a Common Break

Likai Chen, Weining Wang and Wei Biao Wu

No SFB649DP2017-026, SFB 649 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University, Collaborative Research Center 649

Abstract: For change-point analysis of high dimensional time series, we consider a semiparametric model with dynamic structural break factors. The observations are described by a few low dimensional factors with time-invariate loading functions of covariates. The unknown structural break in time models the regime switching e ects introduced by exogenous shocks. In particular, the factors are assumed to be nonstationary and follow a Vector Autoregression (VAR) process with a structural break. In addition, to account for the known spatial discrepancies, we introduce discrete loading functions. We study the theoretical properties of the estimates of the loading functions and the factors. Moreover, we provide both the consistency and the asymptotic convergence results for making inference on the common breakpoint in time. The estimation precision is evaluated via a simulation study. Finally we present two empirical illustrations on modeling the dynamics of the minimum wage policy in China and analyzing a limit order book dataset.

Keywords: high dimensional time series; change-point analysis; temporal and cross-sectional dependence; vector autoregressive process (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets
Date: 2017-08
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