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Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa; Are they Short-Lived or Long-Lived?

Paul Cashin () and Catherine A Pattillo

No 00/72, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper examines the persistence of shocks to the terms of trade, using annual data on 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1960-96. We find that the persistence of terms of trade shocks varies widely—for about half the countries such shocks are short-lived, while for one-third of the countries such shocks are long-lived. The countries experiencing long-lived terms of trade shocks are typically those that have large shares of petroleum imports in total imports, small shares of nonfuel commodity exports in total exports, and are highly concentrated in exportable commodities with long-lived price shocks.

Keywords: Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Trade; Terms of trade; Shock Persistence, trade shocks, terms of trade shocks, confidence interval, time series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000-03-01
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Journal Article: Terms of trade shocks in Africa: are they short-lived or long-lived? (2004) Downloads
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