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Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts

Turgut Kisinbay (), Eric Parrado (), Rodolfo Maino and Jorge I Canales Kriljenko

No 06/122, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: How should a central bank organize itself to produce the best possible inflation forecast? This paper discusses elements for building a comprehensive platform for an inflation forecasting framework. It describes the exercise of forecasting inflation as a production process, which induces a strict discipline concerning data management, information gathering, the use of a suitable statistical apparatus, and the exercise of sound communication strategies to reinforce reputation and credibility. It becomes critical how a central bank organizes itself to produce relevant macroeconomic forecasts, with special consideration to product design, the essential requirements needed in the forecasting process, and key related organizational issues. In addition, the paper proposes to factor into the process the authorities' policy responses to previous inflation forecasts in order to be consistent with the spirit of the inflation targeting framework.

Keywords: Central bank organization; Central bank policy; Central banks and their policies; Data collection; Data analysis; Monetary policy; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Forecasting models; Inflation forecasting, communication, central bank, inflation forecasts, Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation, (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47
Date: 2006-05-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ets, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
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