Public Debt Dynamics; The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks
Fuad Hasanov and
No 12/230, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund
We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path.
Keywords: Fiscal consolidation; Economic models; External shocks; Economic growth; Fiscal policy; Inflation; Public debt; VAR, impulse responses, debt ratio, debt dynamics, primary deficit, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Journal Article: Public debt dynamics: the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks (2018)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/230
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jim Beardow ().