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Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus; An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions

Serhan Cevik () and Mohammad Rahmati

No 13/2, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960–2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-generalized method of moments. In addition to an array of demographic, economic, geographic, and institutional variables, we introduce an estimated risk of conflict recurrence as an explanatory variable in the growth regression, because post-conflict countries have a tendency to relapse into subsequent conflicts even years after the cessation of violence. The empirical results show that domestic factors, including the estimated probability of conflict recurrence, as well as a range of external variables, contribute to post-conflict economic performance.

Keywords: Economic models; External shocks; Economic growth; Developing countries; Foreign aid; Transition economies; Civil conflict, conflict recurrence risk, growth, institutions, geography, structural reforms, dynamic panel estimation, post-conflict, real gdp, gdp per capita, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, General, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-01-04
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Journal Article: Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions (2015) Downloads
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