EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom

Pascal Towbin and Sebastian Weber ()

No 15/182, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Between 1996 and 2006 the U.S. has experienced an unprecedented boom in house prices. As it has proven to be difficult to explain the large price increase by observable fundamentals, many observers have emphasized the role of speculation, i.e. expectations about future price developments. The argument is, however, often indirect: speculation is treated as a deviation from a benchmark. The present paper aims to identify house price expectation shocks directly. To that purpose, we estimate a VAR model for the U.S. and use sign restrictions to identify house price expectation, housing supply, housing demand, and mortgage rate shocks. House price expectation shocks are the most important driver of the boom and account for about 30 percent of the real house price increase. We also construct a model-based measure of exogenous changes in price expectations and show that this measure leads a survey-based measure of changes in house price expectations. Our main identification scheme leaves open whether expectation shifts are realistic or unrealistic. In extensions, we provide evidence that price expectation shifts during the boom were primarily unrealistic and were only marginally affected by realistic expectations about future fundamentals.

Keywords: Housing prices; United States; Price increases; Expectations; Econometric models; Housing Market, House Price Expectations, Speculation, Housing Boom, VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35
Date: 2015-07-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43145 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Price expectations and the US housing boom (2016) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/182

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jim Beardow () and Hassan Zaidi ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).

 
Page updated 2020-10-25
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/182