Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy
Benjamin L Hunt and
No 16/212, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund
China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.
Keywords: Spillovers; Asia and Pacific; China’s slowdown and rebalancing, international business cycle, model based analysis, China’s slowdown and rebalancing, Computable General Equilibrium Models, Forecasting and Simulation, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Business Cycles, Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts, One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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