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Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices

Christopher McDermott (), Paul Cashin () and Alasdair Scott

No 99/155, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.

Date: 1999-11-01
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Related works:
Journal Article: Booms and slumps in world commodity prices (2002) Downloads
Working Paper: Booms and slumps in world commodity prices (1999) Downloads
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