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Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria

Andrea Bastianin (), Marzio Galeotti () and Matteo Manera ()

No 20110301, Working Papers from Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica

Abstract: Accurate forecasts of incoming calls are crucial to optimal staffing decisions in call centers. This paper evaluates a wide range of models and forecast combination techniques by means of statistical and economic criteria. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. In particular, the statistical evaluation of competing models is carried out by using a fl exible loss function as input to pairwise and joint forecast diagnostic checks. Informative rankings across alternative single models and different groups of models are obtained. Moreover, models are evaluated from the perspective of a manager, who needs reliable forecasts to dimension the call center. Money metrics of forecasting performance are computed, which are based on the economic value of information and the certainty equivalent.

Keywords: Combining forecasts; Decision making; Loss function; Seasonality; Telecommunications forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-03
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http://www.statistica.unimib.it/utenti/WorkingPapers/WorkingPapers/20110301.pdf First version, 2011 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria (2011) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecast evaluation in call centers: combined forecasts, flexible loss functions and economic criteria (2011) Downloads
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