Non-Fundamental Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Professional Forecasts
Keen Meng Choy (),
Kenneth Leong and
Anthony S Tay ()
Departmental Working Papers from National University of Singapore, Department of Economics
It is theoretically possible that non-fundamental idiosyncratic shocks to agents’ rational expectations are a source of economic fluctuations. Studies using data on consumer and investor sentiment suggest that this is indeed a significant source of fluctuations. We present the results of a study that uses forecasts from professional forecasters to extract non-fundamental shocks to expectations. In contrast to previous studies, we show that non-fundamental expectations are not a significant source of output fluctuations.
Keywords: Non-fundamental expectations; Sunspots; Economic fluctuations; Survey of Professional Forecasters; Vector autoregressions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-ets and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Journal Article: Non-fundamental expectations and economic fluctuations: Evidence from professional forecasts (2006)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0306
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Departmental Working Papers from National University of Singapore, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by (). This e-mail address is bad, please contact .