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Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics

Duo Qin ()

No 669, Working Papers from Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance

Abstract: This study examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission approach, catalysed by time-series statistical methods. Methodological consequences of the assimilation are critically evaluated in light of the meagre achievement of the research in predicting the current global recession.

Keywords: Business cycles; NBER; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-for and nep-his
Date: 2010-07
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