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Exit Polls, Turnout, and Bandwagon Voting: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Rebecca Morton (), Daniel Mueller, Lionel Page () and Benno Torgler
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Daniel Müller

No 8, QuBE Working Papers from QUT Business School

Abstract: We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal eff ect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 12 percentage points. Our study is the fi rst clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the e ffect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we fi nd that exit poll information signi ficantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

Date: 2013-03-14
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
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http://external-apps.qut.edu.au/business/documents ... chVoting_MMPT_13.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Exit Polls, Turnout, and Bandwagon Voting: Evidence from a Natural Experiment (2013) Downloads
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