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STATED PREFERENCE LOGIT ANALYSIS OF USERS’ATTITUDES TOWARDS CONVENTIONAL AND AUTOMATED BUSES

Adriano Alessandrini, Paolo Delle Site, Valerio Gatta, Edoardo Marcucci () and Qing Zhang
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Adriano Alessandrini: Sapienza Rome University
Paolo Delle Site: University Niccolò Cusano
Valerio Gatta: Roma Tre University
Qing Zhang: Sapienza Rome University

No 215, Working Papers from CREI Università degli Studi Roma Tre

Abstract: Driverless buses running in low-speed, mixed-traffic conditions are the subject of current research and demonstration in Europe. The paper aims to assess how automation fares with respect to conventional services in terms of users' attitudes. Stated preference data, based on a questionnaire administered in twelve cities, are used for the estimation of logit models providing preference shares for the conventional and the automated bus. The correlation among errors in repeated measurement data is addressed using a multivariate version of the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula, yielding a closed form for the choice sequence probability. Estimation results show a relatively higher preference for automation across the cities where the automated bus is implemented inside a major facility. Without provision of information on how the system works and with no experience, users tend not to trust automation in the normal mixed-traffic conditions that are found in cities. The impacts of socio-economic variables are heterogenous across cities. Comparison between the logit based on the independence assumption and the logit with correlated observations shows deviations in coefficient estimates as large as twenty per cent with a typical sample size of ab out two hundred respondents and four choice tasks per individual. Deviations decrease to few percent-age points when sample size is tripled. Deviations in preference shares are, however, negligible, a result which, in terms of policy implications, is indicative of the validity of the independence assumption in applied work

Keywords: automated bus; stated preference; logit; correlation; Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm, nep-tre and nep-ure
Date: 2015, Revised 2015
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