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Civil Wars and International Trade

Philippe Martin (), Thierry Mayer () and Mathias Thoenig ()

Sciences Po publications from Sciences Po

Abstract: This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between civil wars and international trade. We first show that trade destruction due to civil wars is very large and persistent and increases with the severity of the conflict. We then identify two effects that trade can have on the risk of civil conflicts: it may act as a deterrent if trade gains are put at risk during civil wars but it may also act as an insurance if international trade provides a substitute to internal trade during civil wars. We find support for the presence of these two mechanisms and conclude that trade openness may deter the most severe civil wars (those that destroy the largest amount of trade) but may increase the risk of lower scale conflicts.

JEL-codes: F10 F51 F52 F59 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-04
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Published in Journal of the European Economic Association, 2008, vol. 6, pp.541-550

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Journal Article: Civil Wars and International Trade (2008) Downloads
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Working Paper: Civil Wars and International Trade (2008) Downloads
Working Paper: Civil Wars and International Trade (2008) Downloads
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