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Synchronization patterns in the European Union

Mattia Guerini, Duc Thi Luu and Mauro Napoletano ()

Sciences Po publications from Sciences Po

Abstract: We propose a novel approach to investigate the synchronization of business cycles and we apply it to a Eurostat database of manufacturing industrial production time-series in the European Union (EU) over the 2000-2017 period. Our approach exploits Random Matrix Theory and extracts the latent information contained in a balanced panel data by cleaning it from possible spurious correlation. We employ this method to study the synchronization among different countries over time. Our empirical exercise tracks the evolution of the European synchronization patterns and identifies the emergence of synchronization clusters among different EU economies. We find that synchronization in the Euro Area increased during the first decade of the century and that it reached a peak during the Great Recession period. It then decreased in the aftermath of the crisis, reverting to the levels observable at the beginning of the 21st century. Second, we show that the asynchronous business cycle dynamics at the beginning of the century was structured along a East-West axis, with eastern European countries having a diverging business cycle dynamics with respect to their western partners. The recession brought about a structural transformation of business cycles co-movements in Europe. Nowadays the divide can be identified along the North vs. South axis. This recent surge in asynchronization might be harmful for the European Unio because it implies countries’ heterogeneous responses to common policies.

Keywords: Business cycle synchronization; Random matrix theory; European Union (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F4 F45 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-opm
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Related works:
Working Paper: Synchronization Patterns in the European Union (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Synchronization patterns in the European Union (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Synchronization Patterns in the European Union (2019) Downloads
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