Construction of coincident indicators for the euro area. 5th EUROSTAT Colloquium on Modern Tools For Business Cycle Analysis, Luxembourg, 29th September – 1st October 2008
Catherine Mathieu () and
Gian Luigi Mazzi
Additional contact information
Françoise Charpin: Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques
Gian Luigi Mazzi: Eurostat
Sciences Po publications from Sciences Po
The availability of timely and reliable information on main macroeconomic variables is considered both by policy makers and analysts as crucial for an effective process of decision making. Unfortunately official statistics cannot always meet adequately user needs. This is the reason why, using econometric techniques analysts try to anticipate or estimate in real time main macroeconomic movements. In this paper we compare several econometric models for the estimation of the period on period growth rate for the euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production Index (IPI). This comparison is made on the basis of real time results provided by these models over six years (2002-2007). Tests of absence of bias are performed and Diebold-Mariano tests help us to select among the models. The paper also presents a new indicator for euro area employment quarterly growth, which seems to perform rather well in the recent past, although this is still a preliminary assessment as we are only at an early stage of running the indicator.
Keywords: coincident indicators; GDP; industrial production; employment; euro area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: Construction of coincident indicators for the euro area. 5th EUROSTAT Colloquium on Modern Tools For Business Cycle Analysis, Luxembourg, 29th September - 1st October 2008 (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/9802
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Sciences Po publications from Sciences Po Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Spire @ Sciences Po Library ().