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Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: More Timely and Higher Frequency Estimates, 1970-2017

Gary Koop (), Stuart McIntyre (), James Mitchell () and Aubrey Poon
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Aubrey Poon: University of Strathclyde

EMF Research Papers from Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group

Abstract: Output growth estimates for the regions of the UK are currently published at the annual frequency only, released with a long delay and offer limited historical coverage. To improve the regional database this paper develops a mixed-frequency multivariate model and uses it to produce consistent estimates of quarterly regional output growth dating back to 1970. We describe how these estimates are updated and evaluated on an ongoing, quarterly basis to publish online (at www.escoe.ac.uk/regionalnowcasting) more timely regional growth estimates. We illustrate how the new quarterly data can contribute to our historical understanding of business cycle dynamics and connectedness between regions.

Keywords: Regional data; Mixed frequency; Temporal disaggregation; Nowcasting; Bayesian methods; Real-time data; Vector autoregressions; JEL Classification Numbers: C32; C51; C53; E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo, nep-his, nep-mac and nep-ure
Date: 2019
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https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/finance/mpf/working-papers/kmmp.pdf

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Working Paper: Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: More Timely and Higher Frequency Estimates, 1970-2017 (2018) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wrk:wrkemf:20

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