Details about Kevin L. Kliesen

Access statistics for papers by Kevin L. Kliesen.

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Short-id: pkl42

Working Papers

2012

1. Federal Reserve lending to troubled banks during the financial crisis, 2007-10
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)

2011

2. How does the FOMC learn about economic revolutions? evidence from the New Economy Era, 1994-2001
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2010

3. Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)
   See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2011)

2008

4. Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article in Review (2008)

2006

5. Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article in Review (2008)

2005

6. Productivity measurement and monetary policymaking during the 1990s
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)

2004

7. Do productivity growth, budget deficits, and monetary policy actions affect real interest rates? evidence from macroeconomic announcement data
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Journal Articles

2013

1. Fiscal uncertainty clouds outlook for growth
   The Regional Economist, 2013, (Jan)
2. U.S. manufacturing and the importance of international trade: it’s not what you think
   Review, 2013, (January), 27-50

2012

3. Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes
   Review, 2012, (September), 369-398
4. Economy still growing albeit at a tepid pace
   The Regional Economist, 2012, (Oct), 22
5. Federal Reserve lending to troubled banks during the financial crisis, 2007-2010
   Review, 2012, (May), 221-242
6. Follow regional agricultural financial conditions with new quarterly survey
   Central Banker, 2012, (Fall)
7. How Does the FOMC Learn About Economic Revolutions? Evidence from the New Economy Era, 1994–2001
   Business Economics, 2012, 47, (1), 27-56
8. How good are the government’s deficit and debt projections and should we care?
   Review, 2012, (Jan), 21-39
9. How well do initial claims forecast employment growth over the business cycle and over time?
   Economic Synopses, 2012
10. Signs point to stronger real GDP growth in 2012 than last year's 1.6
    The Regional Economist, 2012, (Jul)
11. The U.S. economy should strengthen as year goes by
    The Regional Economist, 2012, (Apr)
12. The economy should be able to avoid a recession in 2012
    The Regional Economist, 2012, (Jan)

2011

13. Are small businesses the biggest producers of jobs?
    The Regional Economist, 2011, (Apr), 8-9
14. DO OIL SHOCKS DRIVE BUSINESS CYCLES? SOME U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2011, 15, (S3), 498-517 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
15. Forecasters expect solid growth, low inflation in 2011
    The Regional Economist, 2011, (Jan), 11
16. Initial claims and employment growth: are we at the threshold?
    Economic Synopses, 2011
17. New data elevate uncertainty about the outlook on the economy
    The Regional Economist, 2011, (Oct), 26
18. Recovery continues despite new risks, old problems
    The Regional Economist, 2011, (July), 21
19. Tax rates and revenue since the 1970s
    Economic Synopses, 2011
20. The economy continues to strengthen, but risks remain
    The Regional Economist, 2011, (Apr), 17
21. The federal debt: too little revenue or too much spending
    Economic Synopses, 2011
22. The federal debt: what’s the source of the increase in spending?
    Economic Synopses, 2011
23. Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices
    Economic Synopses, 2011

2010

24. Commercial real estate: a drag for some banks but maybe not for U.S. economy
    The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jan), 10-11
25. Economy is nearing cruising altitude
    The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jul), 23
26. FOMC learning and productivity growth (1985-2003): a reading of the record
    Review, 2010, (Mar), 129-154 View citations (3)
27. Flight to safety and U.S. Treasury securities
    The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jul), 18-19
28. Inflation may be the next dragon to slay
    The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jan), 4-9
29. Is the Fed’s definition of price stability evolving?
    Economic Synopses, 2010
30. Low interest rates have benefits … and costs
    The Regional Economist, 2010, (Oct), 6-7
31. Measuring financial market stress
    Economic Synopses, 2010 View citations (3)
32. Signs point toward another jobless recovery
    The Regional Economist, 2010, (Apr), 17
33. The economy looks for its second wind
    The Regional Economist, 2010, (Oct), 17
34. The recovery might be a 98-pound weakling
    The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jan), 19

2009

35. Dating the end of the recession: evaluating the economic indicators
    Economic Synopses, 2009
36. Digging into the infrastructure debate
    The Regional Economist, 2009, (Jul), 4-9
37. In Fed we trust: new book focuses on the Fed in the eye of the storm
    The Regional Economist, 2009, (Oct), 21-22
38. Man the lifeboats!
    The Regional Economist, 2009, (Jan), 19
39. Nearing the bottom, or digging a deeper hole?
    The Regional Economist, 2009, (Apr), 23
40. Putting the financial crisis and lending activity in a broader context
    Monetary Trends, 2009, (Mar)
41. Recession or depression?
    Economic Synopses, 2009
42. Recession or depression? part II
    Economic Synopses, 2009
43. The storm clouds begin to depart
    The Regional Economist, 2009, (Jul), 19

2008

44. An expanded look at employment
    National Economic Trends, 2008, (Mar)
45. Another conundrum?
    Monetary Trends, 2008, (Oct)
46. Can you hear me now?
    Monetary Trends, 2008, (Jan)
47. Ethanol: economic gain or drain?
    The Regional Economist, 2008, (Jul), 4-9
48. Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules
    Review, 2008, (May), 175-192 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
49. Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise
    Review, 2008, (Sep), 505-516 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
50. Skirting the edge?
    The Regional Economist, 2008, (Apr), 17
51. Threats to the economy don't let up
    The Regional Economist, 2008, (Oct), 17
52. Triple whammy fuels economic doubts
    The Regional Economist, 2008, (Jul), 17

2007

53. As boomers slow down, so might the economy
    The Regional Economist, 2007, (Jul), 12-13
54. Below-trend growth is predicted for most of 2007
    The Regional Economist, 2007, (Jan), 18
55. Housing woes weigh heavily on the economy
    The Regional Economist, 2007, (Oct), 18
56. How well does employment predict output?
    Review, 2007, (Sep), 433-446 View citations (1)
57. Recession rumblings
    National Economic Trends, 2007, (May)
58. The economy continues to take a punch
    The Regional Economist, 2007, (Jul), 18
59. Trading barbs: a primer on the globalization debate
    The Regional Economist, 2007, (Oct), 4-9
60. Will the U.S. economy find its groove this year?
    The Regional Economist, 2007, (Apr), 18

2006

61. Are two employment surveys better than one?
    National Economic Trends, 2006, (Nov)
62. Despite setbacks, the U.S. economy steams forward
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Jan), 18
63. Economy overcomes hurricanes, rising energy prices
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Apr), 18-18
64. Electricity: the next energy jolt?
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Oct), 4-9
65. Gauging the size of today's price shocks
    National Economic Trends, 2006, (Jan)
66. Macroeconomic news and real interest rates
    Review, 2006, (Mar), 133-144 View citations (1)
67. Rising natural gas prices and real economic activity
    Review, 2006, (Nov), 511-526 View citations (4)
68. Survey says families are digging deeper into debt
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Jul), 12-13
69. The 1990s acceleration in labor productivity: causes and measurement
    Review, 2006, (May), 181-202 View citations (2)
70. U.S. maneuvers through choppy waters
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Jul), 18

2005

71. Battle at bond bluff: forecasters vs. financial markets
    National Economic Trends, 2005, (Jun) View citations (1)
72. Do we have a saving crisis?
    The Regional Economist, 2005, (Jul), 4-9
73. Economists expect solid economic growth this year
    The Regional Economist, 2005, (Jan), 19
74. Has monetary policy been more accommodative than previously believed?
    Monetary Trends, 2005, (Oct)
75. Oil price volatility and U.S. macroeconomic activity
    Review, 2005, (Nov), 669-84 View citations (21)
76. Reading inflation expectations from CPI futures
    National Economic Trends, 2005, (Feb)

2004

77. A jobless recovery with more people working?
    The Regional Economist, 2004, (Apr), 10-11 View citations (1)
78. Economy finally takes off
    The Regional Economist, 2004, (Jan.), 19
79. Fear of hell might fire up the economy
    The Regional Economist, 2004, (Jul), 10-11 View citations (1)
80. Mind the gap: measuring actual vs. potential output
    National Economic Trends, 2004, (Jan)
81. Monetary policy actions, macroeconomic data releases, and inflation expectations
    Review, 2004, (May), 9-22 View citations (5)
82. Ringing in the new year with an investment bust?
    National Economic Trends, 2004, (Dec)
83. The economy gets back on track, but once again leaves many workers behind
    The Regional Economist, 2004, (Jan.), 4-9
84. The party heats up
    The Regional Economist, 2004, (Apr), 19
85. Waiting on the Fed
    The Regional Economist, 2004, (Jul), 19

2003

86. Big government the comeback kid?
    The Regional Economist, 2003, (Jan), 4-9 View citations (1)
87. Slow recovery remains puzzling
    The Regional Economist, 2003, (Jul), 19
88. The 2001 recession: how was it different and what developments may have caused it?
    Review, 2003, (Sep), 23-38 View citations (2)
89. The U.S. economy: between Iraq and a hard place
    The Regional Economist, 2003, (Apr), 19
90. Waiting for the investment boom? It might be a while
    National Economic Trends, 2003, (May)
91. Was Y2K behind the business investment boom and bust?
    Review, 2003, (Jan), 31-42 View citations (1)

2002

92. A longer road to recovery?
    The Regional Economist, 2002, (Jan.), 19
93. Die another day? budget deficits and interest rates
    National Economic Trends, 2002, (Dec) View citations (1)
94. Does a mild recession imply a weak recovery?
    National Economic Trends, 2002, (Apr)
95. Full steam ahead?
    The Regional Economist, 2002, (Apr.), 19-19
96. Government budget surpluses head south: will they come back?
    The Regional Economist, 2002, (Apr.), 12-13
97. Recovery isn't as easy as in the past
    The Regional Economist, 2002, (Jul.), 19-19
98. Unemployment insurance claims and economic activity
    Review, 2002, (May), 15-28 View citations (3)

2001

99. Heavyweight of productivity: does the microchip match up?
    The Regional Economist, 2001, (Jul), 4-9
100. Rising oil prices and economic turmoil: must they always go hand in hand?
     The Regional Economist, 2001, (Jan), 4-9 View citations (1)
101. The expected federal budget surplus: how much confidence should the public and policymakers place in the projections?
     Review, 2001, (Mar), 11-24 View citations (1)
102. The switch to NAICS
     National Economic Trends, 2001, (Aug)
103. Whither the “New Economy”?
     National Economic Trends, 2001, (Sep)
104. Will California short-circuit the expansion?
     National Economic Trends, 2001, (Feb)

2000

105. Agriculture outcomes and monetary policy actions: Kissin' cousins?
     Review, 2000, (May), 1-12 View citations (3)
106. Available labor supply
     National Economic Trends, 2000, (Feb)
107. The economic outlook for 2000: bulls on parade?
     National Economic Trends, 2000, (Jan)

1999

108. An oasis of prosperity: solely an American phenomenon?
     The Regional Economist, 1999, (Jul), 4-9
109. Is the bloom off the rose for Eighth District farmers?
     The Regional Economist, 1999, (Apr), 12-13
110. Models and monetary policy: more science than art?
     The Regional Economist, 1999, (Jan), 10-11
111. Putting business software purchases into the national accounts
     National Economic Trends, 1999, (Nov)
112. The NAIRU: tailor-made for the Fed?
     The Regional Economist, 1999, (Oct)

1998

113. A brave new economic world? the productivity puzzle
     The Regional Economist, 1998, (Jan), 4-9
114. Enhancing future retirement income through 401(k)s
     The Regional Economist, 1998, (Oct), 4-9
115. How important will 401(k) plans be to baby boomers?
     National Economic Trends, 1998, (Nov)
116. How susceptible is the United States to the Asian flu?
     The Regional Economist, 1998, (Apr), 10-11

1997

117. Assessing the generational gap in future living standards through generational accounting
     The Regional Economist, 1997, (Apr), 5-9
118. Critiquing the consumer price index
     The Regional Economist, 1997, (Jul), 10-11
119. Is deflation coming?
     National Economic Trends, 1997, (Nov)
120. What's up down on the farm?
     The Regional Economist, 1997, (Jan), 12-13

1996

121. A recipe for monetary policy credibility
     The Regional Economist, 1996, (Oct), 10-11
122. Are some agricultural banks too agricultural?
     Review, 1996, (Jan), 23-36 View citations (8)
123. Chained, rested and ready: the new and improved GDP
     The Regional Economist, 1996, (Jan), 10-11
124. District automotive sector flourishing
     The Regional Economist, 1996, (Apr), 12-13
125. Tax man, heal thyself
     The Regional Economist, 1996, (Jul), 5-9

1995

126. A Fed focused on price stability: the benefits of a single target
     The Regional Economist, 1995, (Apr), 10-11
127. A fiscal devolution: can state and local governments measure up?
     The Regional Economist, 1995, (Oct), 4-9
128. District economy takes off
     The Regional Economist, 1995, (Jul), 12-13
129. The fixation on international competitiveness
     The Regional Economist, 1995, (Jan), 4-9

1994

130. Commodity price indexes: can they predict inflation?
     The Regional Economist, 1994, (Jul), 10-11
131. District economic update: will the sailing remain smooth?
     The Regional Economist, 1994, (Oct), 12-13
132. EFFECTS ON INTEREST RATES OF IMMEDIATELY RELEASING FOMC DIRECTIVES
     Contemporary Economic Policy, 1994, 12, (4), 79-91 View citations (3)
133. The economics of natural disasters
     The Regional Economist, 1994, (Apr), 5-9

1993

134. IOU's from the edge: should we worry about the budget deficit?
     The Regional Economist, 1993, (Oct), 10-12
135. Leaning against the wind: does the Fed engage in countercyclical monetary policy?
     The Regional Economist, 1993, (Jan), 10-11
136. Some upbeat trends in District employment
     The Regional Economist, 1993, (Apr), 12-13

1992

137. Agriculture in 1991: the decline continues
     Pieces of Eight, 1992, (Jun), 12-21
138. District agricultural banks ride high in the saddle
     Pieces of Eight, 1992, (Mar), 9-13
139. The recent credit crunch: the neglected dimensions
     Review, 1992, (Sep), 18-36 View citations (2)

1991

140. The emerging importance of aquaculture
     Pieces of Eight, 1991, (Dec), 1-4
141. Where are farmland prices headed?
     Pieces of Eight, 1991, (Sep), 5-8