Details about Thomas Michael Mertens

Access statistics for papers by Thomas Michael Mertens.

Last updated 2023-02-24. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pme415

Working Papers

2024

1. A Currency Premium Puzzle
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
2. Evaluating Forecast Performance of Market-based Measures of Inflation Expectations in Europe
   FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

2023

3. A Financial New Keynesian Model
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
4. The Optimal Supply of Central Bank Reserves under Uncertainty
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
   Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2023)

2022

5. Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
   Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2022)

2020

6. A Risk-based Theory of Exchange Rate Stabilization
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (16)
7. What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (18)
   Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2018) View citations (11)

2019

8. Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (33)
   Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2019) View citations (16)
9. Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (35)
   Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2019) View citations (13)

2016

10. The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (10)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2011) View citations (43)

2015

11. Not so disconnected: exchange rates and the capital stock
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (5)

2010

12. Fraud deterrence in dynamic Mirrleesian economies
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia View citations (5)

2005

13. Option pricing with sparse grids
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics View citations (1)

Journal Articles

2022

1. Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2022, 2022, (11), 05 View citations (2)
2. Recession Prediction on the Clock
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2022, 2022, (36), 06

2021

3. Effects of Asset Valuations on U.S. Wealth Distribution
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2021, 2021, (24), 01-06 View citations (1)

2020

4. Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2020, 2020, (22), 01 View citations (1)
5. Market Assessment of COVID-19
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2020, 2020, (14), 5 View citations (4)

2019

6. Zero Lower Bound Risk according to Option Prices
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019

2018

7. Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018 View citations (36)
8. Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018 View citations (23)
9. Valuation Ratios for Households and Businesses
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018

2017

10. China's Exchange Rate Policies and U.S. Financial Markets
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017
11. Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 View citations (2)

2011

12. Market Sentiment: A Tragedy of the Commons
    American Economic Review, 2011, 101, (3), 402-05 View citations (12)