Details about John Muellbauer

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Homepage:	http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/General/Members/Muellbauer.aspx
Workplace:	Department of Economics, Oxford University, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by John Muellbauer.

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Short-id: pmu109

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Working Papers

2012

1. Tobin Lives: Integrating evolving credit market architecture into flow of funds based macro-models
   Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (1)
2. Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (1)
   Also in Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2011) View citations (1)
3. When is a housing market overheated enough to threaten stability?
   Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics
   See also Chapter (2012)

2011

4. Credit Conditions and the Real Economy: The Elephant in the Room
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
5. House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the U.S. Experience
   SERC Discussion Papers, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE View citations (3)
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2011) View citations (2)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (10)
   See also Journal Article in Economic Journal (2011)
6. Modelling and Forecasting with County Court Data: Regional Mortgage Possession Claims and Orders in England and Wales
   SERC Discussion Papers, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE
7. Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in U.S. House Prices
   SERC Discussion Papers, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE View citations (3)
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2011)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011)

2010

8. Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (10)
   Also in Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2010) View citations (9)
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2010) View citations (4)
9. Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
10. Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
11. Household decisions, credit markets and the macroeconomy: implications for the design of central bank models
    BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements
12. Housing Markets and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the Future
    SERC Discussion Papers, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Financial Stability (2010)
13. Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (1)
    Also in SERC Discussion Papers, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE (2010)
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2010)
14. New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the US
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)

2009

15. Consumption, Land Prices and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Japan
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (1)
16. Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2009)

2008

17. Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in Proceedings (2007)
18. Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2008)
19. Multi-sector inflation forecasting - quarterly models for South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford View citations (2)
20. New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (2)

2007

21. Housing and Personal Wealth in a Global Context
    Working Papers, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) View citations (1)
22. Inflation Dynamics and Trade Openness
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (3)
23. Inflation dynamics and trade openness: with an application to South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford View citations (1)

2006

24. Consumer credit conditions in the United Kingdom
    Bank of England working papers, Bank of England View citations (3)
25. Estimating the Balance Sheet of the Personal Sector in an Emerging Market Country: South Africa 1975-2003
    Working Papers, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) View citations (2)
26. Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (7)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2006) View citations (8)
27. Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford View citations (18)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2006) View citations (20)
28. Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford
    See also Journal Article in Journal of African Economies (2007)
29. Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa: 1994-2004
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
30. Towards Official Balance Sheet Estimates for South Africa’s Household Sector
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford
31. Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (23)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2006) View citations (32)

2005

32. Booms, Busts and Ripples in British Regional Housing Markets
    Macroeconomics, EconWPA

2004

33. A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price
    Development and Comp Systems, EconWPA View citations (4)
34. A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price Index: application to South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford View citations (3)
35. A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa
    Development and Comp Systems, EconWPA View citations (5)
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2004) View citations (7)
36. Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford View citations (7)
    Also in Development and Comp Systems, EconWPA (2004) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in South African Journal of Economics (2004)
37. Consumer credit conditions in the UK
    Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003, Money Macro and Finance Research Group View citations (6)
38. Estimates of Personal Sector Wealth for South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (1999) View citations (2)
39. Estimating Equivalence Scales for Tax and Benefits Systems
    Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford View citations (1)
40. Forecasting (and Explaining) US Business Cycles
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
41. Revised Estimates of Personal Sector Wealth for South Africa
    Development and Comp Systems, EconWPA View citations (2)
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2004) View citations (2)

2002

42. Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (26)
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2002) View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article in IMF Staff Papers (2002)

2001

43. A STUDY IN STRUCTURAL CHANGE: RELATIVE EARNINGS IN WALES SINCE THE 1970S
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Regional Studies (2002)
44. Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
45. Estimating monetary policy rules for South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile (2000) View citations (1)
    See also Chapter (2002)

2000

46. Earnings, Unemployment, And Housing: Evidence From A Panel Of British Regions
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
    Also in Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford (1999) View citations (1)
    Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society (2000) View citations (2)
47. Financial liberalisation, consumption and debt in South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford View citations (16)
48. Inflation and output forecasts for South Africa: monetary transmission implications
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford View citations (12)
49. Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (17)
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2000) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in World Bank Economic Review (2000)

1999

50. Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in Oxford Review of Economic Policy (1998)

1998

51. The Housing Market and Regional Commuting and Migration Choices
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (59)
    See also Journal Article in Scottish Journal of Political Economy (1998)

1997

52. Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (115)
    Also in Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford (1996) View citations (37)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Journal (1997)
53. Income Persistence and Macro-Policy Feedbacks in the United States
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (1)

1988

54. Housing, Wages and UK Labour Markets
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (1989)

1986

55. Habits, Rationality and Myopia in the Life-Cycle Consumption Function
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (29)
    See also Journal Article in Annales d'Economie et de Statistique (1988)

1984

56. Aggregate Production Functions and Productivity Measurement: A New Look
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (9)
57. British Manufacturing Productivity 1955-1983: Measurement Problems, Oil Shocks and Thatcher Effects
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Journal Articles

2012

1. CREDIT, HOUSING COLLATERAL, AND CONSUMPTION: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN, THE U.K., AND THE U.S
   Review of Income and Wealth, 2012, 58, (3), 397-423 View citations (5)
2. Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28, (2), 456-476

2011

3. House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience
   Economic Journal, 2011, 121, (552), 533-551 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper (2011)

2010

4. Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future
   Journal of Financial Stability, 2010, 6, (4), 203-217 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper (2010)

2009

5. A STOCHASTIC ESTIMATION FRAMEWORK FOR COMPONENTS OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
   South African Journal of Economics, 2009, 77, (2), 282-313 View citations (1)

2008

6. Housing markets and the economy: the assessment
   Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2008, 24, (1), 1-33 View citations (26)
7. The Next Collapse: U.S. Price Inflation
   The Economists' Voice, 2008, 5, (6), 9

2007

8. Housing, credit and consumer expenditure
   Proceedings, 2007, 267- 334 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper (2008)
9. Housing, housing finance, and monetary policy: a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
   Proceedings, 2007
10. Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994
    Journal of African Economies, 2007, 16, (5), 705-744 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (2006)

2006

11. ESTIMATES OF HOUSEHOLD SECTOR WEALTH FOR SOUTH AFRICA, 1970-2003
    Review of Income and Wealth, 2006, 52, (2), 285-307 View citations (5)

2005

12. Monetary Policy, Macro-stability and Growth
    World Economics, 2005, 6, (4), 123-147 View citations (5)
13. Paradoxes in Biodiversity Conservation
    World Economics, 2005, 6, (3), 57-69 View citations (3)
14. Property Taxation and the Economy after the Barker Review
    Economic Journal, 2005, 115, (502), C99-C117 View citations (8)

2004

15. CONSTRUCTION OF CPIX DATA FOR FORECASTING AND MODELLING IN SOUTH AFRICA
    South African Journal of Economics, 2004, 72, (5), 884-912 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (2004)

2002

16. A Study in Structural Change: Relative Earnings in Wales Since the 1970s
    Regional Studies, 2002, 36, (1), 1-11
    See also Working Paper (2001)
17. Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa
    IMF Staff Papers, 2002, 49, (Special issue), 185-213 View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper (2002)

2001

18. Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16, (3), 203-220 View citations (16)

2000

19. Earnings Biases in the United Kingdom Regional Accounts: Some Economic Policy and Research Implications
    Economic Journal, 2000, 110, (464), F412-29 View citations (18)
20. Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa
    World Bank Economic Review, 2000, 14, (3), 509-544 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper (2000)

1998

21. Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1998, 14, (3), 54-80 View citations (56)
    See also Working Paper (1999)
22. The Housing Market and Regional Commuting and Migration Choices
    Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 1998, 45, (4), 420-46 View citations (45)
    See also Working Paper (1998)

1997

23. Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market
    Economic Journal, 1997, 107, (445), 1701-27 View citations (107)
    See also Working Paper (1997)
24. The Assessment: Business Cycles
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1997, 13, (3), 1-18 View citations (2)

1996

25. Income Persistence and Macro-Policy Feedbacks in the U.S
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 58, (4), 703-33 View citations (12)

1994

26. Anglo-German differences in housing market fluctuations: The role of institutions and macroeconomic policy
    Economic Modelling, 1994, 11, (2), 238-249 View citations (2)
27. The Assessment: Consumer Expenditure
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1994, 10, (2), 1-41 View citations (47)

1992

28. Anglo-German differences in housing market dynamics: The role of institutions and macro economic policy
    European Economic Review, 1992, 36, (2-3), 539-548 View citations (9)
29. Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving: Comment
    Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 1992, 94, (2), 319-22 View citations (6)

1991

30. Productivity and Competitiveness
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1991, 7, (3), 99-117 View citations (11)

1989

31. Housing, Wages and UK Labour Markets
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1989, 51, (2), 97-136 View citations (36)
    See also Working Paper (1988)

1988

32. Habits, Rationality and Myopia in the Life Cycle Consumption Function
    Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, 1988, (9), 47-70 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper (1986)

1986

33. On Measuring Child Costs: With Applications to Poor Countries
    Journal of Political Economy, 1986, 94, (4), 720-44 View citations (95)
34. The Assessment: Productivity and Competitiveness in British Manufacturing
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1986, 2, (3), i-xxv View citations (1)

1983

35. Surprises in the Consumption Function
    Economic Journal, 1983, 93, (369a), 34-50 View citations (14)

1981

36. Are employment decisions based on rational expectations?
    Journal of Econometrics, 1981, 16, (1), 156-156
37. Linear Aggregation in Neoclassical Labour Supply
    Review of Economic Studies, 1981, 48, (1), 21-36 View citations (4)

1980

38. An Almost Ideal Demand System
    American Economic Review, 1980, 70, (3), 312-26 View citations (800)
39. Reply to Irvine and McCarthy [Aggregation, Income Distribution and Consumer Demand]
    Economic Journal, 1980, 90, (363), 912-13
40. The Estimation of the Prais-Houthakker Model of Equivalence Scales
    Econometrica, 1980, 48, (1), 153-76 View citations (10)
41. Unemployment, employment and exports in British manufacturing: A non-clearing markets approach
    European Economic Review, 1980, 13, (3), 383-409
    See also Chapter (1981)

1979

42. McClements on equivalence scales for children
    Journal of Public Economics, 1979, 12, (2), 221-231 View citations (4)
43. Reply to McClements
    Journal of Public Economics, 1979, 12, (2), 243-243 View citations (1)

1978

44. Macroeconomic Models with Quantity Rationing
    Economic Journal, 1978, 88, (352), 788-821 View citations (32)

1977

45. Testing the Barten Model of Household Composition Effects and the Cost of Children
    Economic Journal, 1977, 87, (347), 460-87 View citations (27)

1976

46. A comment on limited independence between income responses and household composition
    European Economic Review, 1976, 8, (1), 91-95
47. Community Preferences and the Representative Consumer
    Econometrica, 1976, 44, (5), 979-99 View citations (68)

1975

48. Aggregation, Income Distribution and Consumer Demand
    Review of Economic Studies, 1975, 42, (4), 525-43 View citations (58)
49. Identification and Consumer Unit Scales
    Econometrica, 1975, 43, (4), 807-09
50. The cost of living and taste and quality change
    Journal of Economic Theory, 1975, 10, (3), 269-283 View citations (4)

1974

51. Household Production Theory, Quality, and the "Hedonic Technique."
    American Economic Review, 1974, 64, (6), 977-94 View citations (17)
52. Household composition, Engel curves and welfare comparisons between households: A duality approach
    European Economic Review, 1974, 5, (2), 103-122 View citations (11)
53. Inequality Measures, Prices and Household Composition
    Review of Economic Studies, 1974, 41, (4), 493-504 View citations (9)
54. Prices and Inequality: The United Kingdom Experience
    Economic Journal, 1974, 84, (333), 32-55 View citations (7)

Books

1980

1. Economics and Consumer Behavior
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press View citations (241)

Chapters

2012

1. Credit standards and the bubble in US house prices: new econometric evidence
   A chapter in Property markets and financial stability, 2012, vol. 64, pp 83-89 View citations (2)
2. When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?
   A chapter in Property Markets and Financial Stability, 2012
   See also Working Paper (2012)

2002

3. Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa
   Chapter 15 in Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, 2002, vol. 4, pp 427-476 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper (2001)

1981

4. Unemployment, employment and exports in British manufacturing: A non-clearing markets approach
   A chapter in International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 1981, pp 383-409 View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article in European Economic Review (1980)