Details about Athanasios Orphanides

E-mail:
Homepage:	https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/athanasios-orphanides
Phone:	+1 (617) 324-4051
Postal address:	MIT Sloan School of Management 100 Main Street, E62-481 Cambridge, MA 02142 USA
Workplace:	Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), (more information at EDIRC) Asia School of Business, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Athanasios Orphanides.

Last updated 2024-11-21. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

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Working Papers

2024

1. Enhancing resilience with natural growth targeting
   IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2024)

2023

2. The Forward Guidance Trap
   IMES Discussion Paper Series, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan View citations (1)
   Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2023) View citations (3)

2022

3. Monetary policy in South Africa, 2007-21
   WIDER Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) View citations (1)

2021

4. Collateral Framework: Liquidity Premia and Multiple Equilibria
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
   Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2021)
   Working papers, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel (2021)
   See also Journal Article Collateral Framework: Liquidity Premia and Multiple Equilibria, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2024) (2024)
5. Fiscal and monetary policy interactions in a low interest rate world
   BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements View citations (18)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2021)
6. The Power of Central Bank Balance Sheets
   IMES Discussion Paper Series, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan View citations (6)
   See also Journal Article The Power of Central Bank Balance Sheets, Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (2021) View citations (6) (2021)

2019

7. Compensation Incentives and Risk Taking Behavior: Evidence from Mutual Funds
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
   Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1996) View citations (7)
8. Earnings Forecasts and the Predictability of Stock Returns: Evidence from Trading the S&P
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (8)
   Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1997) View citations (39)
9. Inflation, Volatility, and Growth
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
   Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1996) View citations (23)
   See also Journal Article Inflation, Volatility and Growth, International Finance, Wiley Blackwell (1999) View citations (88) (1999)
10. The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (23)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1996) View citations (40)
    See also Journal Article The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation, International Finance, Wiley Blackwell (2002) View citations (152) (2002)

2018

11. The Boundaries of Central Bank Independence: Lessons from Unconventional Times
    IMES Discussion Paper Series, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan View citations (6)
    Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2018) View citations (6)

2017

12. Central Bank Policies and the Debt Trap
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (9)
13. The Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in the Euro Area: Challenges at the Zero Lower Bound
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (15)
    Also in European Economy - Discussion Papers, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission (2017) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article The fiscal–monetary policy mix in the euro area: challenges at the zero lower bound, Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po (2020) View citations (2) (2020)

2016

14. Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (16)
    Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2016) View citations (15)
15. The Term Structure and Inflation Uncertainty
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations (3)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2016) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article The term structure and inflation uncertainty, Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier (2020) View citations (10) (2020)

2015

16. Fear of Liftoff: Uncertainty, Rules and Discretion in Monetary Policy Normalization
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (15)
    Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2015) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Fear of Liftoff: Uncertainty, Rules, and Discretion in Monetary Policy Normalization, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2015) View citations (5) (2015)

2014

17. Are rules and boundaries sufficient to limit harmful central bank discretion? Lessons from Europe
    IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Are rules and boundaries sufficient to limit harmful central bank discretion? Lessons from Europe, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2014) View citations (5) (2014)
18. Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations (9)
19. The Euro Area Crisis: Politics over Economics
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article The Euro Area Crisis: Politics over Economics, Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer (2014) View citations (12) (2014)
20. What Happened in Cyprus? The Economic Consequences of the Last Communist Government in Europe
    FMG Special Papers, Financial Markets Group
    Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2014) View citations (12)
    See also Chapter What Happened in Cyprus? The Economic Consequences of the Last Communist Government in Europe, World Scientific Book Chapters, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. (2016) View citations (6) (2016)

2013

21. Is monetary policy overburdened?
    Public Policy Discussion Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (5)
    Also in BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements (2013) View citations (19)
    IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2013) View citations (19)
22. What happened in Cyprus
    SAFE Policy Letters, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE View citations (4)

2012

23. Complexity and Monetary Policy
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (8)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2012) View citations (8)
    IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2012) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Complexity and Monetary Policy, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2013) View citations (55) (2013)

2011

24. Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (7)
    Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus (2010) View citations (9)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2010) View citations (5)
    See also Chapter Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (11) (2013)
25. New Paradigms in Central Banking?
    Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus View citations (5)

2010

26. Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2012) View citations (29) (2012)
27. Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (12)
    Also in Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus (2010) View citations (12)
    See also Chapter Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis, Chapters, Edward Elgar Publishing (2011) View citations (2) (2011)
28. Η Σταθερότητα του Χρηματοπιστωτικού Τομέα: Προβληματισμοί και Συμπεράσματα από την Κρίση για την Ευρώπη
    Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus

2008

29. Economic Projections and Rules-of-Thumb for Monetary Policy
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (73)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2008) View citations (79)
    Discussion Papers, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (2008) View citations (73)
    See also Journal Article Economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2008) View citations (38) (2008)
30. Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (18)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Uppsala University, Department of Economics (2008) View citations (16)
    Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus (2008) View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article Imperfect Central Bank Communication: Information versus Distraction, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2011) View citations (21) (2011)
31. Imperfect Knowledge And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (6)
    Also in Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus (2008) View citations (5)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008) View citations (5)
    See also Chapter Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy, Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, Central Bank of Chile (2009) View citations (12) (2009)
32. LEARNING, EXPECTATIONS FORMATION, AND THE PITFALLS OF OPTIMAL CONTROL MONETARY POLICY
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University View citations (61)
    Also in Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus (2008) View citations (55)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008) View citations (59)
    See also Journal Article Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (59) (2008)
33. Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (29)

2007

34. Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (180)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics (2005) View citations (20)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) View citations (167)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2007) View citations (151)
    See also Journal Article Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2007) View citations (172) (2007)
35. Taylor rules
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (11)

2006

36. Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (21)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2006) View citations (36)
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics (2006) View citations (22)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2006) View citations (11)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2006) View citations (13)
    See also Chapter Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge, Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, Central Bank of Chile (2007) View citations (42) (2007)
    Journal Article Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) View citations (25) (2007)
37. The road to price stability
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article The Road to Price Stability, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2006) View citations (14) (2006)

2005

38. A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) View citations (8)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1997) View citations (18)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2003) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2006) View citations (55) (2006)
39. Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (105)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) View citations (13)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2003) View citations (16)
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2003) View citations (25)
    See also Journal Article Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2005) View citations (108) (2005)
40. Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (8)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2005) View citations (16)
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2001, Society for Computational Economics (2001) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge, Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press (2006) View citations (76) (2006)
41. Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (96)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics (2005) View citations (119)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2005) View citations (51)
    See also Journal Article Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press (2012) View citations (160) (2012)
42. The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (182)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2004) View citations (19)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) View citations (10)
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics (2004) View citations (20)
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2004) View citations (5)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2004) View citations (25)
    See also Journal Article The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2005) View citations (142) (2005)
43. The Reform of October 1979: How it Happened and Why
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (36)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2004)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2005) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article The Reform of October 1979: How It Happened and Why, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2013) View citations (5) (2013)
44. The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (197)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2004) View citations (14)
    CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO (2003) View citations (40)
    See also Journal Article The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2005) View citations (176) (2005)

2004

45. Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (47)
    See also Journal Article Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier (2004) View citations (48) (2004)
46. The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (239)
    See also Journal Article The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2004) View citations (217) (2004)

2003

47. Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (433)
    See also Journal Article Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2003) View citations (438) (2003)
48. Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (130)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2003) View citations (82)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2002) View citations (53)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2002) View citations (19)
    See also Chapter Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2004) View citations (87) (2004)
49. Inflation Scares and Monetary Policy
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics View citations (14)
50. Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (21)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) View citations (128)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2003) View citations (13)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2003) View citations (50)
    See also Journal Article Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2004) View citations (144) (2004)
51. Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (122)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2002) View citations (145)
    See also Journal Article Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution (2002) View citations (290) (2002)

2002

52. Activist stabilization policy and inflation: The Taylor rule in the 1970s
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) View citations (4)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2000) View citations (26)
53. Monetary policy rules and the Great Inflation
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (232)
    See also Journal Article Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2002) View citations (238) (2002)
54. Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (2)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2001) View citations (29)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2004) View citations (258) (2004)

2001

55. The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gaps in Real Time
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2001, Society for Computational Economics View citations (20)
56. The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
    CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO View citations (29)
    Also in Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society (2000) View citations (1)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1999) View citations (77)
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (1999) View citations (77)
    See also Journal Article The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2002) View citations (692) (2002)

2000

57. Monetary policy when the nominal short-term interest rate is zero
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (31)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2003) View citations (122) (2003)
58. The quest for prosperity without inflation
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (85)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) (1999) View citations (81)
    See also Journal Article The quest for prosperity without inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2003) View citations (312) (2003)

1999

59. Efficient monetary policy design near price stability
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Efficient Monetary Policy Design near Price Stability, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier (2000) View citations (148) (2000)
60. Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (20)
    See also Journal Article Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy, Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier (2000) View citations (185) (2000)
61. Inflation zone targeting
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article Inflation zone targeting, European Economic Review, Elsevier (2000) View citations (143) (2000)
62. Optimal discretion
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Optimal Discretion, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell (2002) View citations (3) (2002)
63. War and Democracy
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article War and Democracy, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (2001) View citations (56) (2001)

1998

64. Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (149)
    See also Journal Article Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2003) View citations (251) (2003)
65. Monetary policy rules based on real-time data
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (93)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2001) View citations (1119) (2001)
66. P* revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article P revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity, Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier (2000) View citations (66) (2000)

1997

67. An investigation into the magnitude of foreign conflicts
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (1)

1994

68. Estimating the interest rate sensitivity of liquid retail deposit values
    Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations (8)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1994) View citations (6)
69. Leverage as a State Variable for Employment, Inventory Accumulation, andFixed Investment
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (13)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1994) View citations (21)
70. Optimal reform postponement
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
    See also Journal Article Optimal reform postponement, Economics Letters, Elsevier (1996) View citations (3) (1996)
71. Taxation and intergenerational transfers with family size heterogeneity: do parents with more children prefer higher taxes?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
    See also Journal Article Taxation and Intergenerational Transfers with Family-Size Heterogeneity: Do Parents with More Children Prefer Higher Taxes?, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (1996) View citations (1) (1996)

1993

72. Optimal consumption dynamics with non-concave habit forming utility
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Optimal consumption dynamics with non-concave habit-forming utility, Economics Letters, Elsevier (1994) View citations (11) (1994)
73. The empirical properties of a monetary aggregates that adds bond and stock funds to M2
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article The empirical properties of a monetary aggregate that adds bond and stock funds to M2, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (1994) View citations (6) (1994)

1992

74. Labor hoarding when unemployment is a worker discipline device
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
75. Rational addiction with learning and regret
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
    See also Journal Article Rational Addiction with Learning and Regret, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (1995) View citations (171) (1995)
76. The timing of stabilizations
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article The timing of stabilizations, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (1996) View citations (13) (1996)

Journal Articles

2024

1. Collateral Framework: Liquidity Premia and Multiple Equilibria
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2024, 56, (2-3), 489-516
   See also Working Paper Collateral Framework: Liquidity Premia and Multiple Equilibria, CEPR Discussion Papers (2021) (2021)

2022

2. Monetary non-neutrality and stabilisation policies 50 years after Lucas’s “expectations” paper: a roundtable discussion
   The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2022, 29, (6), 1165-1189

2021

3. La dimension budgétaire de la politique monétaire et l'autonomie des banques centrales: leçons de deux crises
   Revue d'économie financière, 2021, N° 144, (4), 161-176
4. The Power of Central Bank Balance Sheets
   Monetary and Economic Studies, 2021, 39, 35-54 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper The Power of Central Bank Balance Sheets, IMES Discussion Paper Series (2021) View citations (6) (2021)

2020

5. The fiscal–monetary policy mix in the euro area: challenges at the zero lower bound
   Economic Policy, 2020, 35, (103), 461-517 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper The Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in the Euro Area: Challenges at the Zero Lower Bound, CEPR Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (15) (2017)
6. The term structure and inflation uncertainty
   Journal of Financial Economics, 2020, 138, (2), 388-414 View citations (10)
   See also Working Paper The Term Structure and Inflation Uncertainty, Working Paper Series (2016) View citations (3) (2016)

2018

7. Independent Central Banks and the Interplay between Monetary and Fiscal Policy
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2018, 14, (3), 447-470 View citations (7)
8. The Boundaries of Central Bank Independence: Lessons from Unconventional Times Keynote Speech by Athanasios Orphanides
   Monetary and Economic Studies, 2018, 36, 35-56 View citations (4)

2015

9. Fear of Liftoff: Uncertainty, Rules, and Discretion in Monetary Policy Normalization
   Review, 2015, 97, (3) View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper Fear of Liftoff: Uncertainty, Rules and Discretion in Monetary Policy Normalization, CEPR Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (15) (2015)

2014

10. Are rules and boundaries sufficient to limit harmful central bank discretion? Lessons from Europe
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, 49, (C), 121-125 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Are rules and boundaries sufficient to limit harmful central bank discretion? Lessons from Europe, IMFS Working Paper Series (2014) View citations (5) (2014)
11. The Euro Area Crisis: Politics over Economics
    Atlantic Economic Journal, 2014, 42, (3), 243-263 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper The Euro Area Crisis: Politics over Economics, CEPR Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (12) (2014)
12. The Need for a Price Stability Mandate
    Cato Journal, 2014, 34, (2), 265-279 View citations (6)

2013

13. Complexity and Monetary Policy
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2013, 9, (1), 167-204 View citations (55)
    See also Working Paper Complexity and Monetary Policy, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (8) (2012)
14. The Reform of October 1979: How It Happened and Why
    Review, 2013, (Nov), 487-542 View citations (5)
    Also in Review, 2005, 87, (Mar), 187-236 (2005) View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper The Reform of October 1979: How it Happened and Why, CEPR Discussion Papers (2005) View citations (36) (2005)

2012

15. Commentary: the United States labor market: status quio pr a new normal?
    Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, 2012, 453-462
16. Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2012, 36, (2), 239-254 View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2010) View citations (1) (2010)
17. Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts
    Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2012, 47, (1), 241-272 View citations (160)
    See also Working Paper Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts, CEPR Discussion Papers (2005) View citations (96) (2005)
18. The Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Euro Area
    Ekonomia, 2012, 13-14, (2-1), 97-108

2011

19. Imperfect Central Bank Communication: Information versus Distraction
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2011, 7, (2), 3-39 View citations (21)
    See also Working Paper Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction, IMF Working Papers (2008) View citations (18) (2008)

2009

20. Recent Policy Challenges through the Lens of Economic Forecasts
    Cyprus Economic Policy Review, 2009, 3, (2), 73-79

2008

21. Economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy
    Review, 2008, 90, (Jul), 307-324 View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper Economic Projections and Rules-of-Thumb for Monetary Policy, CEPR Discussion Papers (2008) View citations (73) (2008)
22. Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008, 55, (Supplement 1), S80-S96 View citations (59)
    See also Working Paper LEARNING, EXPECTATIONS FORMATION, AND THE PITFALLS OF OPTIMAL CONTROL MONETARY POLICY, CAMA Working Papers (2008) View citations (61) (2008)

2007

23. Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge
    Economic Review, 2007, 1-23 View citations (25)
    See also Chapter Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge, Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, 2007, 11, 077-123 (2007) View citations (42) (2007)
    Working Paper Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2006) View citations (21) (2006)
24. Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (5), 1406-1435 View citations (172)
    See also Working Paper Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge, Working Paper Series (2007) View citations (180) (2007)
25. The bond market term premium: what is it, and how can we measure it?
    BIS Quarterly Review, 2007 View citations (53)

2006

26. A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006, 53, (8), 1877-1893 View citations (55)
    See also Working Paper A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation, CFS Working Paper Series (2005) View citations (8) (2005)
27. Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2006, 4, (2-3), 366-375 View citations (76)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge, Working Paper Series (2005) View citations (8) (2005)
28. The Road to Price Stability
    American Economic Review, 2006, 96, (2), 178-181 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper The road to price stability, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2006) View citations (9) (2006)

2005

29. Comment on: "The incredible Volcker disinflation"
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2005, 52, (5), 1017-1023 View citations (1)
30. Expectations, learning and monetary policy
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005, 29, (11), 1807-1808 View citations (21)
31. Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, 8, (2), 498-527 View citations (108)
    See also Working Paper Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy, CEPR Discussion Papers (2005) View citations (105) (2005)
32. Introduction
    Proceedings, 2005, 1-16
33. Real-time data and monetary policy
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2005, 16, (3), 271-276 View citations (10)
34. The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, 37, (3), 583-601 View citations (176)
    See also Working Paper The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time, CEPR Discussion Papers (2005) View citations (197) (2005)
35. The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005, 29, (11), 1927-1950 View citations (142)
    Also in Proceedings, 2003 (2003) View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations, CEPR Discussion Papers (2005) View citations (182) (2005)

2004

36. Erratum to "Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice" [North Am. J. Econ. Finance 15 (1) (2004) 101-124]
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2004, 15, (2), 265-265 View citations (33)
37. Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2004, 36, (2), 151-75 View citations (258)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches, Working Paper Series (2002) View citations (2) (2002)
38. Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2004, 15, (1), 101-124 View citations (48)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2004) View citations (47) (2004)
39. Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2004, 4, (1), 25 View citations (144)
    See also Working Paper Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero, CEPR Discussion Papers (2003) View citations (21) (2003)
40. Summary of Papers Presented at the Conference "Models and Monetary Policy: Research in the Tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter Tinsley"
    Federal Reserve Bulletin, 2004, 90, (3), pp. 289-296
41. The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, 51, (5), 1007-1032 View citations (217)
    See also Working Paper The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism, CESifo Working Paper Series (2004) View citations (239) (2004)

2003

42. Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, 50, (5), 983-1022 View citations (438)
    See also Working Paper Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2003) View citations (433) (2003)
43. Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2003, 3, (1), 65 View citations (122)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy when the nominal short-term interest rate is zero, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2000) View citations (31) (2000)
44. Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, 50, (3), 605-631 View citations (251)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1998) View citations (149) (1998)
45. The quest for prosperity without inflation
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, 50, (3), 633-663 View citations (312)
    See also Working Paper The quest for prosperity without inflation, Working Paper Series (2000) View citations (85) (2000)

2002

46. Comment on the Conduct of Monetary Policy with a Shrinking Stock of Government Debt
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2002, 34, (3), 883-86 View citations (1)
47. Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation
    American Economic Review, 2002, 92, (2), 115-120 View citations (238)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy rules and the Great Inflation, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2002) View citations (232) (2002)
48. Optimal Discretion
    Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2002, 104, (2), 261-276 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper Optimal discretion, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1999) View citations (2) (1999)
49. Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2002, 33, (2), 63-146 View citations (290)
    See also Working Paper Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2003) View citations (122) (2003)
50. The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation
    International Finance, 2002, 5, (1), 47-71 View citations (152)
    See also Working Paper The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019) View citations (23) (2019)
51. The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2002, 84, (4), 569-583 View citations (692)
    See also Working Paper The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time, CIRANO Working Papers (2001) View citations (29) (2001)

2001

52. Economic conditions, elections, and the magnitude of foreign conflicts
    Journal of Public Economics, 2001, 80, (1), 121-140 View citations (17)
53. Expectations, open market operations, and changes in the federal funds rate (commentary)
    Review, 2001, 83, (Jul), 33-58 View citations (9)
54. Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data
    American Economic Review, 2001, 91, (4), 964-985 View citations (1119)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy rules based on real-time data, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1998) View citations (93) (1998)
55. War and Democracy
    Journal of Political Economy, 2001, 109, (4), 776-810 View citations (56)
    See also Working Paper War and Democracy, CESifo Working Paper Series (1999) View citations (2) (1999)

2000

56. Efficient Monetary Policy Design near Price Stability
    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2000, 14, (4), 327-365 View citations (148)
    See also Working Paper Efficient monetary policy design near price stability, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1999) View citations (14) (1999)
57. Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy
    Journal of Economics and Business, 2000, 52, (1-2), 117-141 View citations (185)
    See also Working Paper Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1999) View citations (20) (1999)
58. Inflation zone targeting
    European Economic Review, 2000, 44, (7), 1351-1387 View citations (143)
    See also Working Paper Inflation zone targeting, Working Paper Series (1999) View citations (21) (1999)
59. P revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity
    Journal of Economics and Business, 2000, 52, (1-2), 87-100 View citations (66)
    See also Working Paper P* revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1998) View citations (21) (1998)

1999

60. Inflation, Volatility and Growth
    International Finance, 1999, 2, (1), 117-138 View citations (88)
    See also Working Paper Inflation, Volatility, and Growth, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019) View citations (6) (2019)

1998

61. Myopia and Addictive Behaviour
    Economic Journal, 1998, 108, (446), 75-91 View citations (31)

1996

62. Optimal reform postponement
    Economics Letters, 1996, 52, (3), 299-307 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper Optimal reform postponement, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1994) (1994)
63. Taxation and Intergenerational Transfers with Family-Size Heterogeneity: Do Parents with More Children Prefer Higher Taxes?
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1996, 28, (2), 162-77 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Taxation and intergenerational transfers with family size heterogeneity: do parents with more children prefer higher taxes?, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1994) (1994)
64. The timing of stabilizations
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1996, 20, (1-3), 257-279 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper The timing of stabilizations, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1992) View citations (2) (1992)

1995

65. Rational Addiction with Learning and Regret
    Journal of Political Economy, 1995, 103, (4), 739-58 View citations (171)
    See also Working Paper Rational addiction with learning and regret, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1992) (1992)
66. War Politics: An Economic, Rational-Voter Framework
    American Economic Review, 1995, 85, (4), 828-46 View citations (108)

1994

67. Optimal consumption dynamics with non-concave habit-forming utility
    Economics Letters, 1994, 44, (1-2), 67-72 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper Optimal consumption dynamics with non-concave habit forming utility, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1993) View citations (1) (1993)
68. The empirical properties of a monetary aggregate that adds bond and stock funds to M2
    Review, 1994, (Nov), 31-51 View citations (6)
    Also in Proceedings, 1994, (Nov), 31-51 (1994) View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper The empirical properties of a monetary aggregates that adds bond and stock funds to M2, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1993) View citations (2) (1993)

Books

2017

1. New Challenges in Central Banking:Monetary Policy Governance and Macroprudential Issues
   SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum

2013

2. The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking
   NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (107)

2012

3. New Paradigms in Monetary Theory and Policy?
   SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum View citations (3)

Edited books

2016

1. The Cyprus Bail-in:Policy Lessons from the Cyprus Economic Crisis
   World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. View citations (1)

2013

2. The Great Inflation
   National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press View citations (64)

Chapters

2019

1. Trust and cohesion in Europe: lessons from the Delian League
   Chapter 7 in How to Finance Cohesion in Europe?, 2019, pp 72-79

2016

2. What Happened in Cyprus? The Economic Consequences of the Last Communist Government in Europe
   Chapter 5 in THE CYPRUS BAIL-IN POLICY LESSONS FROM THE CYPRUS ECONOMIC CRISIS, 2016, pp 163-207 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper What Happened in Cyprus? The Economic Consequences of the Last Communist Government in Europe, Financial Markets Group (2014) (2014)

2013

3. European crisis and its implications for global inflation dynamics
   A chapter in Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, 2013, vol. 70, pp 131-135
4. Introduction to "The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking"
   A chapter in The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, 2013, pp 1-22 View citations (22)
5. Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations
   A chapter in The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, 2013, pp 255-288 View citations (11)
   See also Working Paper Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2011) View citations (11) (2011)

2011

6. Dealing with Crises in a Globalized World: Challenges and Solutions
   Chapter 21 in The International Financial Crisis Have the Rules of Finance Changed?, 2011, pp 305-314
7. Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis
   Chapter 2 in Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, 2011 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (12) (2010)

2009

8. Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy
   Chapter 4 in Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, 2009, vol. 13, pp 115-144 View citations (12)
   See also Working Paper Imperfect Knowledge And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy, Central Bank of Chile (2008) View citations (6) (2008)

2008

9. Preparing for the Euro – Perspectives from the Monetary Policy Strategy in Cyprus
   Chapter 18 in Currency and Competitiveness in Europe, 2008

2007

10. Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge
    Chapter 4 in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, 2007, vol. 11, pp 077-123 View citations (42)
    See also Journal Article Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) View citations (25) (2007)
    Working Paper Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge, Central Bank of Chile (2006) View citations (21) (2006)

2004

11. Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy
    A chapter in The Inflation-Targeting Debate, 2004 View citations (87)
    See also Working Paper Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2003) View citations (130) (2003)

1990

12. Money, inflation and growth
    Chapter 06 in Handbook of Monetary Economics, 1990, vol. 1, pp 223-261 View citations (113)