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Details about Michael T. Owyang

E-mail:
Homepage:http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/owyang/index.html
Postal address:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166
Workplace:Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Michael T. Owyang.

Last updated 2014-02-03. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pow3


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Working Papers

2014

  1. Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
  2. Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (1)
  3. Financial stress regimes and the macroeconomy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
  4. How has empirical monetary policy analysis changed after the financial crisis?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads

2013

  1. Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2013) Downloads View citations (11)
  2. Are Government Spending Multipliers State Dependent? Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Historical Data
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics Downloads
  3. Clustered Housing Cycles
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2013) Downloads
  4. Federal reserve forecasts: asymmetry and state-dependence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads

2012

  1. An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
  2. Did affordable housing legislation contribute to the subprime securities boom?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (4)
  3. Forecasting national recessions using state level data
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012) Downloads

2011

  1. Discordant City Employment Cycles
    ERSA conference papers, European Regional Science Association Downloads
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2010) Downloads View citations (2)
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2010) Downloads View citations (2)

    See also Journal Article in Regional Science and Urban Economics (2013)
  2. Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation
    Mathematica Policy Research Reports, Mathematica Policy Research Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Review (2011)
  3. Race and Subprime Loan Pricing
    ERSA conference papers, European Regional Science Association Downloads View citations (1)
  4. The Propagation of Regional Recessions
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2009) Downloads View citations (15)

    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2012)
  5. The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (1)
  6. Where is an oil shock?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2011) Downloads View citations (1)

2010

  1. A flexible finite-horizon alternative to long-run restrictions with an application to technology shock
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (18)
  2. A time-varying threshold STAR model of unemployment and the natural rate
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
  3. Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2011)
  4. Identifying technology shocks in the frequency domain
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads

2009

  1. Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Urban Economics (2010)
  2. The local effects of monetary policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
    See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (2012)
  3. Who benefits from increased government spending? a state-level analysis
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Regional Science and Urban Economics (2013)

2008

  1. Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns
    Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Center for Retirement Research Downloads View citations (2)
  2. States and the business cycle
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Urban Economics (2009)

2007

  1. A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (8)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics (2006) Downloads View citations (2)

    See also Journal Article in Regional Science and Urban Economics (2008)
  2. Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
  3. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing
    University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC San Diego Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2007) Downloads View citations (2)

    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2012)
  4. The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Urban Economics (2008)
  5. Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2010)

2006

  1. Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Applied Economics Letters (2009)
  2. Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (2006)

2005

  1. A flexible finite-horizon identification of technology shocks
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (11)
  2. Nonlinear hedonics and the search for school district quality
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
    Also in Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society (2004) Downloads View citations (1)
  3. The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Regional Economic Development (2005)
  4. What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany Downloads View citations (12)
    Also in Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society (2004) Downloads
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) Downloads View citations (16)

    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2005)

2004

  1. Business cycle phases in U.S. states
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2005)
  2. Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2005)
  3. Explaining the Evolution of Pension Structure and Job Tenure
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (19)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004) Downloads View citations (6)
  4. Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (5)
  5. Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (6)
  6. The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (2006)

2003

  1. Regime switching and monetary policy measurement
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (8)
    Also in University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC San Diego (2001) Downloads View citations (4)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2004)
  2. Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
  3. The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2003)

2002

  1. Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
  2. Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (5)

Journal Articles

2014

  1. Employment Revision Asymmetries
    Economic Synopses, 2014, (11), 1-2 Downloads

2013

  1. Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data
    American Economic Review, 2013, 103, (3), 129-34 Downloads View citations (3)
  2. Discordant city employment cycles
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2013, 43, (2), 367-384 Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
  3. Okun's law in recession and recovery
    Economic Synopses, 2013 Downloads
  4. Output and unemployment: how do they relate today?
    The Regional Economist, 2013, (October) Downloads
  5. Who benefits from increased government spending? A state-level analysis
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2013, 43, (3), 445-464 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2009)

2012

  1. Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes
    Review, 2012, (Sep), 369-398 Downloads View citations (12)
  2. Measuring the effect of school choice on economic outcomes
    The Regional Economist, 2012, (Oct), 5-9 Downloads
  3. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 94, (4), 1066-1080 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
  4. Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?
    Review, 2012, (Sep), 399-418 Downloads View citations (11)
  5. The Local Effects of Monetary Policy
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, 12, (2), 1-38 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2009)
  6. The Propagation of Regional Recessions
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 94, (4), 935-947 Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
  7. Where there’s a smoking ban, there’s still fire
    Review, 2012, (July), 265-286 Downloads

2011

  1. DO OIL SHOCKS DRIVE BUSINESS CYCLES? SOME U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2011, 15, (S3), 498-517 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
  2. Patterns of interstate migration in the United States from the survey of income and program participation
    Review, 2011, (May), 169-186 Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
  3. Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District
    Review, 2011, (May), 207-222 Downloads
    Also in Regional Economic Development, 2008, (Oct), 15-29 (2008) Downloads
  4. Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices
    Economic Synopses, 2011 Downloads
  5. Worth your weight? re-examining the link between obesity and wages
    The Regional Economist, 2011, (Oct), 16-17 Downloads

2010

  1. Business cycle measures
    Economic Synopses, 2010 Downloads
  2. Forecasting with mixed frequencies
    Review, 2010, (Nov), 521-536 Downloads View citations (3)
  3. Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities
    Journal of Urban Economics, 2010, 67, (3), 336-351 Downloads View citations (15)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
  4. Nonlinear effects of school quality on house prices
    Review, 2010, (May), 185-204 Downloads View citations (4)
  5. Not your father's oil shock
    Economic Synopses, 2010 Downloads
  6. Unconventional oil production: stuck in a rock and a hard place
    The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jul), 14-15 Downloads
  7. WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE? A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF JOBLESS RECOVERIES
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2010, 14, (05), 709-726 Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
  8. When do recessions begin and end?
    Economic Synopses, 2010 Downloads

2009

  1. A winning combination? economic theory meets sports
    The Regional Economist, 2009, (Jan), 10-13 Downloads
  2. Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, 41, (1), 35-55 Downloads View citations (9)
  3. Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy
    Applied Economics Letters, 2009, 16, (12), 1191-1194 Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
  4. States and the business cycle
    Journal of Urban Economics, 2009, 65, (2), 181-194 Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2008

  1. A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks
    Review, 2008, (Mar), 117-132 Downloads View citations (8)
  2. A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2008, 38, (6), 578-589 Downloads View citations (21)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
  3. Changing trends in the labor force: a survey
    Review, 2008, (Jan), 47-62 Downloads View citations (5)
  4. Extra credit: the rise of short-term liabilities
    The Regional Economist, 2008, (Apr), 12-13 Downloads
  5. Splitsville: the economics of unilateral divorce
    The Regional Economist, 2008, (Jan), 12-16 Downloads
  6. The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach
    Journal of Urban Economics, 2008, 64, (3), 538-550 Downloads View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper (2007)

2007

  1. Look who's still working now
    National Economic Trends, 2007, (Jun) Downloads
  2. What are the chances?
    National Economic Trends, 2007, (Nov) Downloads
  3. Working hard or hardly working? the evolution of leisure in the United States
    The Regional Economist, 2007, (Jan), 10-11 Downloads

2006

  1. Barreling down the road to recession?
    National Economic Trends, 2006, (Sep) Downloads
  2. Look who's working now
    National Economic Trends, 2006, (Apr) Downloads
  3. Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage
    The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2006, 6, (1), 1-42 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
  4. Social changes lead married women into labor force
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Apr), 10-11 Downloads
  5. The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions
    Economics Letters, 2006, 90, (3), 335-339 Downloads View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
  6. What's in a name? reconciling conflicting evidence on ethnic names
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Jan), 10-11 Downloads

2005

  1. Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005, 87, (4), 604-616 Downloads View citations (58)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
  2. Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?
    Review, 2005, (Mar), 123-135 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
  3. Editor's introduction
    Review, 2005, (Jul), 429-434 Downloads
  4. Hard 'core' inflation
    Monetary Trends, 2005, (Feb) Downloads
  5. Keep your résumé current
    The Regional Economist, 2005, (Jan), 4-9 Downloads
  6. Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Model: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2005, 23, 305-313 Downloads View citations (7)
  7. So much for that merit raise: the link between wages and appearance
    The Regional Economist, 2005, (Apr), 10-11 Downloads
  8. Survey says
    National Economic Trends, 2005, (Sep) Downloads
  9. The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District
    Regional Economic Development, 2005, (Nov), 3-16 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2005)
  10. What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries?
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2005, 1, (3) Downloads View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper (2005)

2004

  1. Can a summer hike cause a surprise fall for mortgage rates?
    Monetary Trends, 2004, (Sep) Downloads
  2. Regime switching and monetary policy measurement
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, 51, (8), 1577-1597 Downloads View citations (28)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
  3. Subjective probabilities: psychological theories and economic applications
    Review, 2004, (Jan), 33-48 Downloads
  4. Your current job probably won't be your last
    National Economic Trends, 2004, (Feb) Downloads

2003

  1. Financial aid and college choice
    National Economic Trends, 2003, (Aug) Downloads
  2. Marriage, motherhood and money: how do women's life decisions influence their wages?
    The Regional Economist, 2003, (Apr), 4-9 Downloads View citations (1)
  3. Monetary policy: the whole country gets the same treatment, but results vary
    The Regional Economist, 2003, (Jan), 12-13 Downloads
  4. Symmetric inflation risk
    Monetary Trends, 2003, (Apr) Downloads
  5. The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks
    Review, 2003, (Nov), 53-66 Downloads View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
  6. Un estudio de caso de una crisis monetaria: el incumplimiento ruso de 1998
    Boletín, 2003, XLIX, (1), 13-24 Downloads

2002

  1. A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998
    Review, 2002, (Nov), 7-18 Downloads View citations (14)
  2. For love or money: why married men make more
    The Regional Economist, 2002, (Apr), 10-11 Downloads View citations (3)
  3. Not your father's pension plan: the rise of 401K and other defined contribution plans
    Review, 2002, (Jan.), 23-34 Downloads View citations (3)
  4. Putting off retirement: the rise of the 401(k)
    National Economic Trends, 2002, (Mar) Downloads
  5. Subject to revision
    National Economic Trends, 2002, (Jun) Downloads

2001

  1. Low unemployment: old dogs or new tricks?
    The Regional Economist, 2001, (Oct), 10-11 Downloads
  2. Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation
    Review, 2001, (Nov.), 41-52 Downloads View citations (6)
  3. The baby-boom boom
    National Economic Trends, 2001, (Mar) Downloads
  4. The long and the short of the federal funds target cuts
    Monetary Trends, 2001, (Sep) Downloads
 
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