Details about Michael T. Owyang

Access statistics for papers by Michael T. Owyang.

Last updated 2012-12-13. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pow3

Working Papers

2013

1. Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

2012

2. An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
3. Did affordable housing legislation contribute to the subprime securities boom?
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
4. Forecasting national recessions using state level data
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
   Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012)

2011

5. Discordant City Employment Cycles
   ERSA conference papers, European Regional Science Association
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2010) View citations (1)
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2010) View citations (1)
6. Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation
   Mathematica Policy Research Reports, Mathematica Policy Research
   See also Journal Article in Review (2011)
7. Race and Subprime Loan Pricing
   ERSA conference papers, European Regional Science Association View citations (1)
8. Race, redlining, and subprime loan pricing
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
9. The Propagation of Regional Recessions
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2009) View citations (15)
   See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2012)
10. The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
11. Where is an oil shock?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2011) View citations (1)

2010

12. A flexible finite-horizon alternative to long-run restrictions with an application to technology shock
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (13)
13. A time-varying threshold STAR model of unemployment and the natural rate
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
14. Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2011)
15. Identifying technology shocks in the frequency domain
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2009

16. Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Urban Economics (2010)
17. The local effects of monetary policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (2012)
18. Who benefits from increased government spending? a state-level analysis
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)

2008

19. Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns
    Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Center for Retirement Research View citations (2)
20. States and the business cycle
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Urban Economics (2009)

2007

21. A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics (2006) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Regional Science and Urban Economics (2008)
22. Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
23. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing
    University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC San Diego
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2007) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2012)
24. The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Urban Economics (2008)
25. Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2010)

2006

26. Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Applied Economics Letters (2009)
27. Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (2006)

2005

28. A flexible finite-horizon identification of technology shocks
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (10)
29. Nonlinear hedonics and the search for school district quality
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    Also in Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society (2004) View citations (1)
30. The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article in Regional Economic Development (2005)
31. What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (12)
    Also in Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society (2004)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2005)

2004

32. Business cycle phases in U.S. states
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2005)
33. Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2005)
34. Explaining the Evolution of Pension Structure and Job Tenure
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (18)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004) View citations (5)
35. Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
36. Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)
37. The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (2006)

2003

38. Regime switching and monetary policy measurement
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (9)
    Also in University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC San Diego (2001) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2004)
39. Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
40. The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2003)

2002

41. Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
42. Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)

Journal Articles

2012

1. Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes
   Review, 2012, (September), 369-398
2. Measuring the effect of school choice on economic outcomes
   The Regional Economist, 2012, (Oct), 5-9
3. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 94, (4), 1066-1080
   See also Working Paper (2007)
4. Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?
   Review, 2012, (September), 399-418 View citations (1)
5. The Local Effects of Monetary Policy
   The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, 12, (2), 3
   See also Working Paper (2009)
6. The Propagation of Regional Recessions
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 94, (4), 935-947
   See also Working Paper (2011)
7. Where there’s a smoking ban, there’s still fire
   Review, 2012, (July), 265-286

2011

8. DO OIL SHOCKS DRIVE BUSINESS CYCLES? SOME U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE
   Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2011, 15, (S3), 498-517 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper (2010)
9. Patterns of interstate migration in the United States from the survey of income and program participation
   Review, 2011, (May), 169-186
   See also Working Paper (2011)
10. Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District
    Review, 2011, (May), 207-222
    Also in Regional Economic Development, 2008, (Oct), 15-29 (2008)
11. Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices
    Economic Synopses, 2011
12. Worth your weight? re-examining the link between obesity and wages
    The Regional Economist, 2011, (Oct), 16-17

2010

13. Business cycle measures
    Economic Synopses, 2010
14. Forecasting with mixed frequencies
    Review, 2010, (Nov), 521-536
15. Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities
    Journal of Urban Economics, 2010, 67, (3), 336-351 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
16. Nonlinear effects of school quality on house prices
    Review, 2010, (May), 185-204 View citations (2)
17. Not your father's oil shock
    Economic Synopses, 2010
18. Unconventional oil production: stuck in a rock and a hard place
    The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jul), 14-15
19. WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE? A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF JOBLESS RECOVERIES
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2010, 14, (05), 709-726
    See also Working Paper (2007)
20. When do recessions begin and end?
    Economic Synopses, 2010

2009

21. A winning combination? economic theory meets sports
    The Regional Economist, 2009, (Jan), 10-13
22. Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, 41, (1), 35-55 View citations (5)
23. Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy
    Applied Economics Letters, 2009, 16, (12), 1191-1194 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
24. States and the business cycle
    Journal of Urban Economics, 2009, 65, (2), 181-194 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2008

25. A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks
    Review, 2008, (Mar), 117-132 View citations (5)
26. A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2008, 38, (6), 578-589 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
27. Changing trends in the labor force: a survey
    Review, 2008, (Jan), 47-62 View citations (4)
28. Extra credit: the rise of short-term liabilities
    The Regional Economist, 2008, (Apr), 12-13
29. Splitsville: the economics of unilateral divorce
    The Regional Economist, 2008, (Jan), 12-16
30. The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach
    Journal of Urban Economics, 2008, 64, (3), 538-550 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper (2007)

2007

31. Look who's still working now
    National Economic Trends, 2007, (Jun)
32. What are the chances?
    National Economic Trends, 2007, (Nov)
33. Working hard or hardly working? the evolution of leisure in the United States
    The Regional Economist, 2007, (Jan), 10-11

2006

34. Barreling down the road to recession?
    National Economic Trends, 2006, (Sep)
35. Look who's working now
    National Economic Trends, 2006, (Apr)
36. Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage
    The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2006, topics.6, (1), 14 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
37. Social changes lead married women into labor force
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Apr), 10-11
38. The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions
    Economics Letters, 2006, 90, (3), 335-339 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
39. What's in a name? reconciling conflicting evidence on ethnic names
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Jan), 10-11

2005

40. Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005, 87, (4), 604-616 View citations (46)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
41. Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?
    Review, 2005, (Mar), 123-135 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
42. Editor's introduction
    Review, 2005, (Jul), 429-434
43. Hard 'core' inflation
    Monetary Trends, 2005, (Feb)
44. Keep your résumé current
    The Regional Economist, 2005, (Jan), 4-9
45. Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Model: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2005, 23, 305-313 View citations (3)
46. So much for that merit raise: the link between wages and appearance
    The Regional Economist, 2005, (Apr), 10-11
47. Survey says
    National Economic Trends, 2005, (Sep)
48. The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District
    Regional Economic Development, 2005, (Nov), 3-16
    See also Working Paper (2005)
49. What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries?
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2005, 1, (3) View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper (2005)

2004

50. Can a summer hike cause a surprise fall for mortgage rates?
    Monetary Trends, 2004, (Sep)
51. Regime switching and monetary policy measurement
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, 51, (8), 1577-1597 View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
52. Subjective probabilities: psychological theories and economic applications
    Review, 2004, (Jan), 33-48
53. Your current job probably won't be your last
    National Economic Trends, 2004, (Feb)

2003

54. Financial aid and college choice
    National Economic Trends, 2003, (Aug)
55. Marriage, motherhood and money: how do women's life decisions influence their wages?
    The Regional Economist, 2003, (Apr), 4-9 View citations (1)
56. Monetary policy: the whole country gets the same treatment, but results vary
    The Regional Economist, 2003, (Jan), 12-13
57. Symmetric inflation risk
    Monetary Trends, 2003, (Apr)
58. The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks
    Review, 2003, (Nov), 53-66 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
59. Un estudio de caso de una crisis monetaria: el incumplimiento ruso de 1998
    Boletín, 2003, XLIX, (1), 13-24

2002

60. A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998
    Review, 2002, (Nov), 7-18 View citations (14)
61. For love or money: why married men make more
    The Regional Economist, 2002, (Apr), 10-11 View citations (2)
62. Not your father's pension plan: the rise of 401K and other defined contribution plans
    Review, 2002, (Jan.), 23-34 View citations (3)
63. Putting off retirement: the rise of the 401(k)
    National Economic Trends, 2002, (Mar)
64. Subject to revision
    National Economic Trends, 2002, (Jun)

2001

65. Low unemployment: old dogs or new tricks?
    The Regional Economist, 2001, (Oct), 10-11
66. Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation
    Review, 2001, (Nov.), 41-52 View citations (7)
67. The baby-boom boom
    National Economic Trends, 2001, (Mar)
68. The long and the short of the federal funds target cuts
    Monetary Trends, 2001, (Sep)