Details about Michael T. Owyang

Homepage:	http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/owyang
Postal address:	Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166
Workplace:	Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Michael T. Owyang.

Last updated 2024-06-09. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

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Working Papers

2025

1. Pension or 401(k)? Retirement Plan Trends in the U.S. Workplace
   On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2024

2. A High-Frequency Measure of Income Inequality
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
3. Job Quits, New-Business Applications and the Postpandemic Pace of U.S. Business Formation
   On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4. What Are the Long-run Trade-offs of Rent-Control Policies?
   On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2023

5. Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023) View citations (1)
6. Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2022

7. A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications
   Department of Economics Working Papers, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2022) View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article A time-varying threshold STAR model with applications, Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press (2023) (2023)
8. Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
   See also Journal Article Age and gender differentials in unemployment and hysteresis, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter (2024) (2024)
9. FOMC Actions and Recent Movements in Five-Year Inflation Expectations
   On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
10. Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2022) View citations (1) (2022)
11. Is the U.S. in a Recession? What Key Economic Indicators Say
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
12. Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms, and Trickle-Up Economics
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13. The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2021

14. Binary Conditional Forecasts
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article Binary Conditional Forecasts, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2022) (2022)
15. Business Cycles Across Space and Time
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Business Cycles across Space and Time, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2022) View citations (1) (2022)
16. Contagious Switching
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Contagious switching, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2022) View citations (1) (2022)
17. FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2023) View citations (8) (2023)
18. Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements, Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier (2024) (2024)
19. The Challenges in Dating the End of Recessions
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2020

20. COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth?
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
21. Could More Progressive Taxes Increase Income Inequality?
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
22. International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2020) View citations (3) (2020)
23. Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2021) View citations (6) (2021)

2018

24. The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter (2020) View citations (11) (2020)

2017

25. Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2020) View citations (3) (2020)
26. Debt and Stabilization Policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2018) View citations (3) (2018)

2016

27. Nonlinearities, Smoothing and Countercyclical Monetary Policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Nonlinearities, smoothing and countercyclical monetary policy, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2018) View citations (4) (2018)

2015

28. A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2015) View citations (18)
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2015) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article A state-level analysis of Okun's law, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier (2018) View citations (10) (2018)
29. Clustered Housing Cycles
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
    Also in Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) (2013) View citations (2)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2013)
    See also Journal Article Clustered housing cycles, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier (2017) View citations (14) (2017)
30. Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (17)
    See also Chapter Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement, Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2016) View citations (21) (2016)

2014

31. Financial stress regimes and the macroeconomy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2018) View citations (10) (2018)
32. How Has Empirical Monetary Policy Analysis Changed After the Financial Crisis?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (30)

2013

33. Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (369)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2013) View citations (330)
34. Are Government Spending Multipliers State Dependent? Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Historical Data
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (252)
35. Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery after Recessions, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2018) View citations (13) (2018)

2012

36. An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2017) View citations (35) (2017)
37. Did affordable housing legislation contribute to the subprime securities boom?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom?, Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (2015) View citations (11) (2015)
38. Forecasting national recessions using state level data
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2015) View citations (15) (2015)

2011

39. Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier (2014) View citations (30) (2014)
40. Discordant City Employment Cycles
    ERSA conference papers, European Regional Science Association
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2010) View citations (2)
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2010) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Discordant city employment cycles, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier (2013) View citations (5) (2013)
41. Race and Subprime Loan Pricing
    ERSA conference papers, European Regional Science Association View citations (2)
42. The Propagation of Regional Recessions
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (7)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2009) View citations (24)
    See also Journal Article The Propagation of Regional Recessions, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2012) View citations (93) (2012)
43. The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (9)
44. Where is an oil shock?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2011) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article WHERE IS AN OIL SHOCK?, Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell (2014) View citations (10) (2014)

2010

45. A flexible finite-horizon alternative to long-run restrictions with an application to technology shock
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-Run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2014) View citations (125) (2014)
46. Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article DO OIL SHOCKS DRIVE BUSINESS CYCLES? SOME U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2011) View citations (41) (2011)
47. Identifying technology shocks in the frequency domain
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)

2009

48. Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities, Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier (2010) View citations (69) (2010)
49. The local effects of monetary policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article The Local Effects of Monetary Policy, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2012) View citations (8) (2012)
50. Who benefits from increased government spending? a state-level analysis
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Who benefits from increased government spending? A state-level analysis, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier (2013) View citations (19) (2013)

2008

51. Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns
    Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Center for Retirement Research View citations (2)
52. States and the business cycle
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article States and the business cycle, Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier (2009) View citations (33) (2009)

2007

53. A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (15)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics (2006) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (33) (2008)
54. Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
55. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing
    University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC San Diego View citations (5)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2007) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2012) View citations (48) (2012)
56. The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach, Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (37) (2008)
57. Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE? A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF JOBLESS RECOVERIES, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2010) View citations (10) (2010)

2006

58. Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy, Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals (2009) View citations (38) (2009)
59. Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter (2006) View citations (6) (2006)

2005

60. A Flexible Finite-Horizon Identification of Technology Shocks
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (14)
61. Nonlinear hedonics and the search for school district quality
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    Also in Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society (2004) View citations (2)
62. The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District, Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) (2005)
63. What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (16)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) View citations (19)
    Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society (2004)
    See also Journal Article What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries?, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2005) View citations (15) (2005)

2004

64. Business cycle phases in U.S. states
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2005) View citations (129) (2005)
65. Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) View citations (11) (2005)
66. Explaining the Evolution of Pension Structure and Job Tenure
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (25)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004) View citations (12)
67. Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (8)
68. Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (10)
69. The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2006) View citations (27) (2006)

2003

70. Regime switching and monetary policy measurement
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (6)
    Also in University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC San Diego (2001) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Regime switching and monetary policy measurement, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2004) View citations (56) (2004)
71. Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
72. The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2003) View citations (16) (2003)

2002

73. Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
74. Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)

Undated

75. Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation
    Mathematica Policy Research Reports, Mathematica Policy Research View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Patterns of interstate migration in the United States from the survey of income and program participation, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2011) View citations (11) (2011)

Journal Articles

2024

1. Age and gender differentials in unemployment and hysteresis
   Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2024, 28, (4), 567-581
   See also Working Paper Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis, Working Papers (2022) (2022)
2. Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements
   Econometrics and Statistics, 2024, 29, (C), 132-149
   See also Working Paper Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements, Working Papers (2021) View citations (1) (2021)

2023

3. A time-varying threshold STAR model with applications
   Oxford Open Economics, 2023, 2, 63-98
   See also Working Paper A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications, Department of Economics Working Papers (2022) (2022)
4. FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2023, 39, (1), 279-297 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications, Working Papers (2021) (2021)

2022

5. Binary Conditional Forecasts
   Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022, 40, (3), 1246-1258
   See also Working Paper Binary Conditional Forecasts, Working Papers (2021) (2021)
6. Business Cycles across Space and Time
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2022, 54, (4), 921-952 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Business Cycles Across Space and Time, Working Papers (2021) View citations (5) (2021)
7. Contagious switching
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022, 37, (2), 415-432 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Contagious Switching, Working Papers (2021) View citations (2) (2021)
8. Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022, 37, (7), 1314-1333 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data, Working Papers (2022) (2022)
9. On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts
   Review, 2022, 104, (2), 131-148 View citations (1)

2021

10. Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2021, 17, (71), 41 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR, Working Papers (2020) View citations (9) (2020)
11. Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics
    Review, 2021, 103, (3), 289-314

2020

12. Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2020, 52, (1), 205-228 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts, Working Papers (2017) View citations (5) (2017)
13. How has empirical monetary policy analysis in the U.S. changed after the financial crisis?
    Economic Modelling, 2020, 84, (C), 309-321 View citations (9)
14. International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2020, 116, (C) View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters, Working Papers (2020) View citations (1) (2020)
15. The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks
    Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2020, 24, (4), 19 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks, Working Papers (2018) View citations (12) (2018)

2019

16. A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes
    Economic Synopses, 2019, (6) View citations (3)
17. Economic Forecasting: Comparing the Fed with the Private Sector
    The Regional Economist, 2019, 27, (3)

2018

18. A state-level analysis of Okun's law
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2018, 68, (C), 239-248 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law, Working Papers (2015) View citations (2) (2015)
19. Comparing Measures of Potential Output
    Review, 2018, 100, (4), 297-316 View citations (7)
20. Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery after Recessions
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2018, 50, (4), 675-704 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions, Working Papers (2013) View citations (4) (2013)
21. Dealing with the Leftovers: Residual Seasonality in GDP
    The Regional Economist, 2018, 26, (4)
22. Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2018, 93, (C), 67-91 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper Debt and Stabilization Policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR, Working Papers (2017) View citations (1) (2017)
23. Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2018, 50, (7), 1479-1505 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper Financial stress regimes and the macroeconomy, Working Papers (2014) View citations (4) (2014)
24. Measuring Potential Output
    Economic Synopses, 2018, (25), 1-2
25. Nonlinearities, smoothing and countercyclical monetary policy
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2018, 95, (C), 136-154 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Nonlinearities, Smoothing and Countercyclical Monetary Policy, Working Papers (2016) View citations (3) (2016)

2017

26. An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2017, 32, (7), 1261-1276 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles, Working Papers (2012) View citations (7) (2012)
27. China's Economic Data: An Accurate Reflection, or Just Smoke and Mirrors?
    The Regional Economist, 2017, 25, (2) View citations (4)
28. Clustered housing cycles
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2017, 66, (C), 185-197 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper Clustered Housing Cycles, Working Papers (Old Series) (2015) (2015)
29. How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement?
    Review, 2017, 99, (3), 259-78

2016

30. Measuring Trends in Income Inequality
    The Regional Economist, 2016, (April) View citations (3)
31. Taking Stock: Income Inequality and the Stock Market
    Economic Synopses, 2016, (7), 1-2 View citations (7)

2015

32. A Measure of Price Pressures
    Review, 2015, 97, (1), 25-52 View citations (8)
33. Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom?
    Real Estate Economics, 2015, 43, (4), 820-854 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper Did affordable housing legislation contribute to the subprime securities boom?, Working Papers (2012) View citations (12) (2012)
34. Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles?
    Review, 2015, 97, (2), 133-158 View citations (1)
35. Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, 47, (5), 847-866 View citations (15)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting national recessions using state level data, Working Papers (2012) View citations (4) (2012)
36. Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure
    Economic Synopses, 2015, (25)
37. Regional vs. Global: How Are Countries' Business Cycles Moving Together These Days?
    The Regional Economist, 2015, (April) View citations (4)

2014

38. A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-Run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2014, 96, (4), 638-647 View citations (125)
    See also Working Paper A flexible finite-horizon alternative to long-run restrictions with an application to technology shock, Working Papers (2010) View citations (22) (2010)
39. Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2014, 48, (C), 199-215 View citations (30)
    See also Working Paper Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods, Working Papers (2011) View citations (15) (2011)
40. Employment Revision Asymmetries
    Economic Synopses, 2014, (11) View citations (2)
41. Rockets and Feathers: Why Don't Gasoline Prices Always Move in Sync with Oil Prices?
    The Regional Economist, 2014 View citations (5)
42. WHERE IS AN OIL SHOCK?
    Journal of Regional Science, 2014, 54, (2), 169-185 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper Where is an oil shock?, Working Papers (2011) View citations (2) (2011)

2013

43. Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data
    American Economic Review, 2013, 103, (3), 129-34 View citations (351)
44. Discordant city employment cycles
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2013, 43, (2), 367-384 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Discordant City Employment Cycles, ERSA conference papers (2011) (2011)
45. Okun's law in recession and recovery
    Economic Synopses, 2013
46. Output and unemployment: how do they relate today?
    The Regional Economist, 2013, (October) View citations (3)
47. Who benefits from increased government spending? A state-level analysis
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2013, 43, (3), 445-464 View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper Who benefits from increased government spending? a state-level analysis, Working Papers (2009) View citations (7) (2009)

2012

48. Discussion of “An approach for identifying and predicting economic recessions in real‐time using time‐frequency functional models”by Holan, Yang, Matteson, and Wikle
    Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 2012, 28, (6), 500-501
49. Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes
    Review, 2012, (Sep), 369-398 View citations (111)
50. Measuring the effect of school choice on economic outcomes
    The Regional Economist, 2012, (Oct), 5-9
51. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 94, (4), 1066-1080 View citations (48)
    See also Working Paper Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing, University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series (2007) View citations (5) (2007)
52. Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?
    Review, 2012, (Sep), 399-418 View citations (54)
53. The Local Effects of Monetary Policy
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, 12, (2), 38 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper The local effects of monetary policy, Working Papers (2009) View citations (4) (2009)
54. The Propagation of Regional Recessions
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 94, (4), 935-947 View citations (93)
    See also Working Paper The Propagation of Regional Recessions, NBER Working Papers (2011) View citations (7) (2011)
55. Where there’s a smoking ban, there’s still fire
    Review, 2012, 94, (July), 265-286 View citations (1)

2011

56. DO OIL SHOCKS DRIVE BUSINESS CYCLES? SOME U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2011, 15, (S3), 498-517 View citations (41)
    See also Working Paper Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence, Working Papers (2010) View citations (21) (2010)
57. Patterns of interstate migration in the United States from the survey of income and program participation
    Review, 2011, 93, (May), 169-186 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, Mathematica Policy Research Reports View citations (2)
58. Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District
    Review, 2011, 93, (May), 207-222
    Also in Regional Economic Development, 2008, (Oct), 15-29 (2008)
59. Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices
    Economic Synopses, 2011 View citations (1)
60. Worth your weight? re-examining the link between obesity and wages
    The Regional Economist, 2011, (Oct), 16-17

2010

61. Business cycle measures
    Economic Synopses, 2010
62. Forecasting with mixed frequencies
    Review, 2010, 92, (Nov), 521-536 View citations (60)
63. Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities
    Journal of Urban Economics, 2010, 67, (3), 336-351 View citations (69)
    See also Working Paper Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities, Working Papers (2009) View citations (11) (2009)
64. Nonlinear effects of school quality on house prices
    Review, 2010, 92, (May), 185-204 View citations (16)
65. Not your father's oil shock
    Economic Synopses, 2010
66. Unconventional oil production: stuck in a rock and a hard place
    The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jul), 14-15
67. WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE? A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF JOBLESS RECOVERIES
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2010, 14, (5), 709-726 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries, Working Papers (2007) View citations (2) (2007)
68. When do recessions begin and end?
    Economic Synopses, 2010

2009

69. A winning combination? economic theory meets sports
    The Regional Economist, 2009, (Jan), 10-13
70. Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, 41, (1), 35-55 View citations (39)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, 41, (1), 35-55 (2009) View citations (13)
71. Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy
    Applied Economics Letters, 2009, 16, (12), 1191-1194 View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy, Working Papers (2006) View citations (5) (2006)
72. States and the business cycle
    Journal of Urban Economics, 2009, 65, (2), 181-194 View citations (33)
    See also Working Paper States and the business cycle, Working Papers (2008) View citations (5) (2008)

2008

73. A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks
    Review, 2008, 90, (Mar), 117-132 View citations (9)
74. A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2008, 38, (6), 578-589 View citations (33)
    See also Working Paper A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation, Working Papers (2007) View citations (15) (2007)
75. Changing trends in the labor force: a survey
    Review, 2008, 90, (Jan), 47-62 View citations (17)
76. Extra credit: the rise of short-term liabilities
    The Regional Economist, 2008, (Apr), 12-13
77. Splitsville: the economics of unilateral divorce
    The Regional Economist, 2008, (Jan), 12-16
78. The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach
    Journal of Urban Economics, 2008, 64, (3), 538-550 View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach, Working Papers (2007) View citations (3) (2007)

2007

79. Look who's still working now
    National Economic Trends, 2007, (Jun)
80. What are the chances?
    National Economic Trends, 2007, (Nov)
81. Working hard or hardly working? the evolution of leisure in the United States
    The Regional Economist, 2007, (Jan), 10-11

2006

82. Barreling down the road to recession?
    National Economic Trends, 2006, (Sep)
83. Look who's working now
    National Economic Trends, 2006, (Apr)
84. Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage
    The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2006, 6, (1), 42 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage, Working Papers (2006) View citations (5) (2006)
85. Social changes lead married women into labor force
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Apr), 10-11 View citations (2)
86. The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions
    Economics Letters, 2006, 90, (3), 335-339 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions, Working Papers (2004) View citations (1) (2004)
87. What's in a name? reconciling conflicting evidence on ethnic names
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Jan), 10-11

2005

88. Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005, 87, (4), 604-616 View citations (129)
    See also Working Paper Business cycle phases in U.S. states, Working Papers (2004) View citations (4) (2004)
89. Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?
    Review, 2005, 87, (Mar), 123-135 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?, Working Papers (2004) View citations (9) (2004)
90. Editor's introduction
    Review, 2005, 87, (Jul), 429-434
91. Hard 'core' inflation
    Monetary Trends, 2005, (Feb)
92. Keep your résumé current
    The Regional Economist, 2005, (Jan), 4-9
93. Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Model: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2005, 23, 305-313 View citations (13)
94. So much for that merit raise: the link between wages and appearance
    The Regional Economist, 2005, (Apr), 10-11
95. Survey says
    National Economic Trends, 2005, (Sep)
96. The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District
    Regional Economic Development, 2005, (Nov), 3-16
    See also Working Paper The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District, Working Papers (2005) (2005)
97. What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries?
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2005, 1, (3) View citations (15)
    See also Working Paper What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries?, MPRA Paper (2005) View citations (16) (2005)

2004

98. Can a summer hike cause a surprise fall for mortgage rates?
    Monetary Trends, 2004, (Sep)
99. Regime switching and monetary policy measurement
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, 51, (8), 1577-1597 View citations (56)
    See also Working Paper Regime switching and monetary policy measurement, Working Papers (2003) View citations (6) (2003)
100. Subjective probabilities: psychological theories and economic applications
     Review, 2004, 86, (Jan), 33-48 View citations (1)
101. Your current job probably won't be your last
     National Economic Trends, 2004, (Feb)

2003

102. Financial aid and college choice
     National Economic Trends, 2003, (Aug)
103. Marriage, motherhood and money: how do women's life decisions influence their wages?
     The Regional Economist, 2003, (Apr), 4-9 View citations (3)
104. Monetary policy: the whole country gets the same treatment, but results vary
     The Regional Economist, 2003, (Jan), 12-13
105. Symmetric inflation risk
     Monetary Trends, 2003, (Apr)
106. The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks
     Review, 2003, 85, (Nov), 53-66 View citations (16)
     See also Working Paper The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks, Working Papers (2003) View citations (23) (2003)
107. Un estudio de caso de una crisis monetaria: el incumplimiento ruso de 1998
     Boletín, 2003, XLIX, (1), 13-24

2002

108. A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998
     Review, 2002, 84, (Nov), 7-18 View citations (45)
109. For love or money: why married men make more
     The Regional Economist, 2002, (Apr), 10-11 View citations (10)
110. Not your father's pension plan: the rise of 401K and other defined contribution plans
     Review, 2002, 84, (Jan.), 23-34 View citations (5)
111. Putting off retirement: the rise of the 401(k)
     National Economic Trends, 2002, (Mar)
112. Subject to revision
     National Economic Trends, 2002, (Jun)

2001

113. Low unemployment: old dogs or new tricks?
     The Regional Economist, 2001, (Oct), 10-11
114. Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation
     Review, 2001, 83, (Nov.), 41-52 View citations (8)
115. The baby-boom boom
     National Economic Trends, 2001, (Mar)
116. The long and the short of the federal funds target cuts
     Monetary Trends, 2001, (Sep)

Chapters

2016

1. Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement
   A chapter in Dynamic Factor Models, 2016, vol. 35, pp 361-400 View citations (21)
   See also Working Paper Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2015) View citations (17) (2015)